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Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. Message Board

  • platguru platguru Apr 24, 2012 6:07 PM Flag

    We are now DOWN $4.02 from...

    ...from the closing price the day after last quarter's BEAT on Feb 7 after the close...on Feb 8th it closed @ 82.19 --- EVERY share purchased since that day, Feb 9 through April 23 (yesterday) IS NOW UNDERWATER and holding an unrealized loss (unless it was subsequently traded in the interim), conversely, every SHORT made and held is NOW SHOWING A PROFIT...interesting factoid, I think.

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    • Few more things on why I think we rally from here vs fall. If you look at all of the metrics of the company you can't be anything but impressed. With costs up as much as they are profits still beat expectations and growing this rapidly. If they can manage to limit some of those costs they can crush the numbers for the rest of the year. I'm not saying they will, but It sure leaves room for much higher profits going forward. Another things was they had almost 40% revenue growth this quarter and that only included the opening of 8 stores. They will surely be opening more then 8 stores per quarter and it was the lowest store growth since they were closing under performing stores in 2010. So to have such impressive rev growth w/o opening a ton of stores is very impressive. They expect to open 1500 stores over the next 7 years. that's 28 quarters or about 50 per quarter and if you include the franchised stores they only opened 15. So that leaves a huge number of new openings to come per quarter leading to even more impressive growth in the coming years. I don't expect they will actually get to 1500 and i'm not sure when saturation becomes and issue but it's certainly no where near the numbers they are now. All of that previous stuff to me looks very impressive then add on the weekly sales volume being at record highs or up 10% over last quarter is awesome. All the trends are upward pointing except food cost. But they are increasing prices to compensate and if there is any downturn in those costs this looks set to explode higher. I'm very impressed overall with the numbers and I think they are being pretty conservative with the numbers for the year leaving open the possibility of surprising to the upside for the rest of the year. This is just my feelings on the direction of the company you have differing opinions but I think most of it isn't based off the company being bad just over priced. And that's where the fun begins, valuations are what investors make of them, some think 30 is too high some think 60 is too high and every stock has a place where people are willing to pay. We will see where the market takes us, but i'm betting up.

    • sure, but I think you may be selling the growth rate a little short. I'd be more inclined to see 20-25% growth rate over the next 5 years with the amount of openings and if they can keep SSS in the 5-9% range during that time EPS will go up and if the economy improves over that time growth could be in the 22-27% range. Now sure a pe of 28ish with a growth rate in the low 20's could be viewed as high. But I think if we compare apples to apples with for example CMG this is 1/2 the valuation and is experiencing the same growth rate. That's really the basis for my argument. I don't short stocks much but I think a good strategy would be to be long this and short CMG based on that. But I think for some reason people don't view them as the same since cramer doesn't pump this only CMG. But I do think this has a more lasting appeal then CMG anyway since it's more of an experience without any competition besides local bars and such which is competition for sure. I just think you are looking at EPS around 3.40 this year maybe a tad below. But i'd expect .02 beats the rest of the year maybe more. and then around 4 bucks next year possibly in the 4.1 range if they keep firing. Which is great growth for a bar/rest. On the short term. If the market remains weak and growth stocks keep taking hits then 70 is probably where this will go. But if the growth stock selloff is done then this is probably headed back to 90+.

    • A proper "fill of the gap" brings it to touch, precisely, $70.91
      I believe it will happen in the next week. We will all see if it happens...

 
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