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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

  • mario_themario mario_themario Oct 10, 2011 11:07 AM Flag

    Earnings estimates came down!

    From 2.05 to 2.02 and 6.50 to 6.36.

    Not a bad thing now hopefully they can beat. IMO we will see some choppy markets but overall we should see a steady rise with overall earnings beating estimates. The big key will be forward guidance for 2012 + how cautious companies are. Still believe we rally into the 4th QTR. HFC IF they do beat + IMO they will, it will bring the prices back to pre cash levels earlier in the QTR + it may make a run at 40. Once the investment community see net cash on the balance sheet that alone will be a driver with hopefully some further announcement on pipeline acquisitions and expansions to use their cash flow. The midcon is still in the sweet spot for a least the next 2 years. If the EU turns around at all + we get any positive news don't expect that brent spread to fall much further.

    HFC is not a takeover target due to valuation + any price rises will be from performance.

    Well Pre, I hope they loaded up the boat when the stock was around 25 as that's the power of buybacks if they use them properly, it reduces the float at cheap prices + hence earnings per share rise, along with future divvies. Divvies will only be important until obama + congress turn the 15% tax to the 39% tax + expect that 1/1/14, along with cap gains from 15 to 20% with future rises back to 39%. Its not a matter of if, but when. We now have a country with 14.5T debt that will continue to climb, IMO to somewhere over 18T before someone gets in that refuses to continue to borrow, or we are taken off the reserve currency. Trying to spend our way out of this mess hasn't + won't work. The last stimuluous has seen zero job creation but the spin is it prevented even more lost jobs, like Solyndra, a .5BB black hole, and there are many of them that was just one of the bigger ones.

    For the oil/gas industry here, fracking is big + new regs are afoot + potentially eliminating the entire process due to environmental concerns may put an abrupt end to the practice. That will have massive ramifications world wide on prices. The reality is if liberals stay in power, fracking will die, if conservatives take power, fracking will continue, its that simple. There is a lot of horizontal drilling in the 2 major formations + if its stopped the major glut will stop along with it, hence the glut at cushing.

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