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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

  • mario_themario mario_themario Oct 22, 2011 9:31 PM Flag

    Low price target

    Now 37, I guess Barclay's told Cheng to shape up or ship out on his poor calls on HFC. Don't understand the yearly number at 6.96 that doesn't add up with the prior + estimated QTR's. Still expect the 4th QTR to be at least 2/share. Next years numbers also rising + I expect something over 6/share before its all said + done, that's another 1.26BB added onto the balance sheet. In 3 years at those profits the company would have about 1/2 of their market cap in cash at today's prices.

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    • That path is not sustainable.

      somebody will come in before that, load up the company with debt and leave with the cash.

      If the margins hold thru the winter, then the stock is going to about double.

    • Not taking issue with your analysis, only to note that the market is not giving much benefit to companies that hold alot of cash, not until they see how it will be put to use.

      The world is awash in cash. For all the noise about banks not lending, capital formation is easier than ever, millionaires are a dime a dozen and capital does not deserve the special tax treatment it presently gets. It's time to bring it into better balance with labor. From that perspective alone, a more progressive tax policy makes sense.

      • 1 Reply to precaud
      • I don't disagree, a case in point would be MSFT but then there is AAPL that has about 80BB on its books, and pays no divvy yet the stock keeps rising. I only look at the cash situation as a refiner with no debt is a good thing with some added cash on their sheet. I don't expect them to hoard it but would prefer to see ROI cost improvements/expansions of existing facilities, more moves in pipeline aquisitions and less emphasis on divvy + buy backs.

        My TD acct now shows 2.30 for the QTR, it was 2.08 7 days ago, yet the stock price is stuck and was down over a buck last week, hardly showing the rise in estimates. They're moving the stock down as I write on low volume. I guess they're shooting for a year end P/E of 4.5.

27.34-0.19(-0.69%)12:09 PMEDT