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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

  • mario_themario mario_themario Nov 11, 2011 3:39 PM Flag

    Great week

    The stock dropped over 15%, was down every day, + lost 1BB in market cap after posting earnings of 523MM.

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    • Must be.... Gas has been tracking up....
      Plus all the normal price structures that existed in the past driving down 95 no longer exist..... Lowest priced gas always was on exit 3 in Georgia .... No longer.... That tells me they do not need to selectively dump gas this year in this padd ..... Sounds like they do in your padd. Bottom line is how all these latest developments effect the refinery stocks. I never trust the published spin.... Next week will give us some nice entries in Hfc and vlo....the options experts on the vlo board think the stocks will attempt to be dropped to make the currently big wins go away before OPEC.... GL...AH

    • I've done some more looking around, and this price collapse appears to be localized to the SW market area. ABQ has the lowest prices in the nation right now. Nearest refinery is HFC in Artesia, but lots of gas is trucked in from TX. Compare to average prices in Tulsa and KC at 3.16, 3.20-ish in Salt Lake City, 3.38 in Denver. I'm wondering if this isn't a dumping of summer blend inventory? Temp-wise, it would make sense. And diesel hasn't been affected.

    • Turns out half the difference is State tax difference . Not sure why... But NY has a 32 cent higher tax per gallon then NM. Logic would say it should be the exact opposite. NY is a magic State... They defy logic . I just traveled thruNM... They have great roads.... NY not as good. Must be the altitude difference.

      Bottom line is that the after tax diffence is 10 bucks a bbl.... Still gives the mid contentment refiners a slight edge....

      This anomaly is moving pretty fast

    • My point is the stock price will need to reset to reflect the 20 dollar hit . Look they have smaller refineries that cost more per bbl to run.....their refineries do not have the complexity to get the max value products out of a bbl of crude.

      It is simple math.....use VLO earnings and HFC earnings this past quarter as your forecast earnings with this current WTI / Brent differential....what you get is HFC will make less then VLO will PER share in Q4.....

      So do you think the stocks prices will move toward that fact....I think so....

      Like I next Friday we will know.....this shifting landscape is playing out fast...

      ( disclosure...I swing trade both VLO and HFC......own XOM stock....and have accumulated some VLO when it got beat up in Q3)


    • trade is now long the oils and short the refiners, i guess.

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