These big brokers like UBS and GS are all in this together.. One day GS upgrades and the next UBC downgrades and on and on. When one downgrades they all buy on the cheap and after an upgrade they sell.
As long as they pick volatile stocks, they can trade: buy, sell, go short, do the whole option enchillada...while the rest of us just sit and watch...and get whipped around like a bunch of clueless idiots. That's why a guy like Buffet has done pretty well. He knows what he owns, and really rarely trades.
I one knew a smart pro who said: Wall Street loves to make pennies but doesn't know how to make dollars.
Analysts really are not in business to make all us "little guys" money. They work, typically, for a big institution and work for other big institutions who can pay the freight to support them. Our nickle-dime commissions cannot support these guys in the lifestyles they desire....so they zig and zag, playing like a trader to generate as many commission dollars as they can.
I'm just a relatively "small timer" and an "investor." I've stated here that I believe HFC, being very well-managed, can get to $50-55 this year. HFC still appears to be the best run (from a pure financial standpoint) of the companies in its space and deserves to sell at some premium to the rest of its peer group. But, we shall see.