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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

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  • mario_themario mario_themario Feb 28, 2012 9:43 AM Flag

    any reasons for weakness? just curious

    Well, I'm a nobody who never worked in the industry like yourself + only became self educated on it as I do with any investment I make, so I know a little about a lot, just enough to be dangerous. I try to learn as much as I can before I invest. I do look at your posts as you do know the nuances of the industry + are more knowledgable than myself. You would think the analysts covering this beat would be also. If I can come up with a wag earnings number and I've been lucky to be near it in the past, why can't they. I dreaded this release as you recall I was beating the tom tom's for lowering expectations as they weren't jiving with external forces, crude input costs + lowered spreads.
    I also saw the extra divvy as another way to pump up price pre earnings knowing a miss was in the cards. ALL refiners took at best a small hit on their misses and today HFC is down another 3% after falling over 5.7% the past 2 days, an 8.7% hair cut and if you'll notice they missed yearly earnings by only .04! CVI missed and is down almost nothing after their big run up ala Icahn. This stock is held to much higher std's than the rest of the group. As I projected they have over 600MM in net cash + I hope they forget the specials for the time being + build up even more cash. They are also carrying HEP debt and I didn't see any payments from HEP.
    They did state margins are better in Q1 which we all knew so earnings will be better sans the output loss with the 1st QTR turnaround. This decline IMO is grossly over done.

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