Well VLO 30 days ago was looking at .51/share + are now at .20. HFC was at 1.23 30 days ago + is now at 1.20. As I wrote earlier, this stock gets punished for being the leader in the sector as evidenced by the big drop at VLO + the minimal drop here. So VLO beats by 75% + HFC beats by 12%, guess who's stock moves more, as the analysts forget about the big drop from 30 days ago in VLO + the minimal drop here.
Today VLO preannounces .25 - .35 you would expect a pop but AH volume is low + the price isn't moving. A beat of 75% at the higher number you would think would be a driver upward, that shows how out of favor this sector is. I still stand by my earnings number of 1.35/share here or 276MM profit + 1.12BB for the year or 5.50/share. That yearly number could come down depending on how bad they blow the current outage at navajo + I have no reason to expect them to come in at 10 -15 days + expect something like 20 - 25 days.
I'd still like to see no special but I would like to see them announce a 1BB buyback + I would like to see them buying back shares pronto. I know people here like the special, but once they pay that out, its just cash off the balance sheet. 1BB buy back at today's price or 29/share, means 35MM shares off the books. That's a gift that keeps on giving as the share count would drop to 170MM from 205MM + future EPS go up. IF they hit earnings of 5.50 this year, they will still have over 1BB net CASH + 1BB in HEP and a market cap of 5BB, less the 2BB noted or 3BB for a company that's making over 1BB a year.
Looking at a map, it would appear that Valero's refineries are more dependent on Brent crude. Holly should be ok, but I agree, the sector trades as a sector. Valero has a bigger market cap and is more liquid.
I would think though, that over longer haul, Holly is gonna win out. To me, it's a HUGE takeover target.