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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

  • brryry47 brryry47 Feb 14, 2013 10:51 AM Flag

    analysts opinions and targets

    Looking at key statistics on this board and comparing analysts opinions and targets. Key stats are awesome. There seems to be some kind of disconnect with the way analysts estimate targets and judge market potential. Any thoughts out there? Im in very long @ 38.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • my thought is that refiners have historically had very wild swings in profitability, and that management was powerless to predict margins and earnings. Wall St. doesnt value periodic profitability and only gives full PE ratio to predictable earnings, and gives above average PE to predictable with growth.

      We have never had that, and the predictions are for pipeline takeaways to destroy current high margins. dont look for that to change quickly. At best we get 8-9 PE instead of 5-7. But at current earnings rate 9 PE would be awesum. May get there by year end. Sooner if the anti Tar Sands people get their way and the new pipelines dont get approved in timely fashion.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to jackie.stacy58
      • I read Plains All American conference call transcript. It looks to me it will take a least three years to pipeline out some of this trapped oil. Even PAA purchased railroad assets. The capital is available to construct using MLPs. Seems like there are about 15 more MLPs being formed. This process will take time. There must be some proven reserves in order to justify the capital investment in those areas? Has any of these shale plays come up short?

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