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HollyFrontier Corporation Message Board

  • raman_ds raman_ds Mar 25, 2013 11:53 AM Flag

    why it is down?

    any specific reason..VLO is up..serious answers please

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    • My point is there is no reason other than it is bouncing off a high or people overreacting to oil credits and profit projections. This company blows the competition away. Again, an EV to EBITDA of 3!! If you are worried about the dip just hold on and don't turn on the computer for a few days. This stock will bounce back. It is tremendously undervalued. Look at the financials not the chatter. It is just a buying opportunity. When others run away you run to the stock. Good Luck!!

    • From what I have read, MPC is less effected by the ethanol credit problem than VLO and HFC. The government is slow to react to eliminating this obsolete law initiated at the end of the Bush administration in 2007. Corn , a food crop, is shamelessly being used as a fuel. Congress forced refiners to blend ethanol into gasoline, despite it's being less efficient, creating more pollution.
      MPC is a better sock and is rated higher than HFC and VLO

    • Its going to $45. Get out. Look at teh 2014 EPS estimates for HFC and VLO.

      Assign a P/E of 7.5

      Which stock is fairly valued????

      • 7 Replies to chip_stack21
      • I like VLO, but you are in a different world with HFC. HFC laps VLO EPS and everything else. The projections mean very little at this time. Buy both stocks - they are both going up. If it does dribble to 45 I will be waiting to buy, but don't think this will happen absent a market crash. (april's coming)

      • It all depends on the crack spread. Which you seem to think is a drug. Just my opinion. I have enjoyed those special dividends in the mean time. Every analyst may be smarter, but I will take the return I have received from this company. I don't see it dropping to $45.00 but it could. VLO is a good company, larger, retailer, but I do believe they have exposure to Ethanol and Brent pricing exposure. Did you happen to listen to the HFC conference call?

      • Well that makes one of you. Seems every analyst (people smarter than you) think HFC YoY EPS will decline for the next 2 years. Precipitously.

        Who has the better net margin? What do I care if they both make the same EPS?
        Potential?? The valuation on this roman candle isnt potential anymore its kenitic. Clue in. $45 in a week. Talk at ya then.

      • Well, Your answer explains it all. Please read the reports on both web sites. If you dont understand cost and midwest oil pricing, you have no business commenting on this message board. I own both stocks. Why do you think Hess is shutting down Port Reading. I believe HFC has more potential to earn money per share based on procuring oil for less because of location. This may end and the crack spread has narrowed in the last two weeks. F.Y.

      • Short answer? The one that makes the most money urban. Which on an EPS basis is identical for 2014. Can you tell me why HFC deserves a higher multiple???

        Crack spread?? I think youre smokin the crack spread pal.

      • Gross margin per barrel VLO $13.12 - HFC $24.00. Operating Expense per barrel $5.17 for VLO -HFC is $6.29. Who has the better net margin? Which stock is fairly valued Chip.

      • The forward P/E is 7.73 for VLO as compared to 9.07 HFC. Which company has greater ability to profit from the crack spread differential?

    • Raman....

      Take a look at 2014 profit/ share projections for VLO and Hfc for your answer . I have been pointing out on the VLO board since January that by the end of the year the share prices must approach each other.... Ie- the $15/ share difference must disappear. So far , over half has disappeared .

      VLO has performed better then Hfc this year to date as predicted.... And it will continue to as long as those projections hold up. ( yahoo financial section on analyst opinions and projections)

      I still think Hfc is a good stock.... But it needed to come in and it has.... From here I think VLO will just close the gap and I do not see much more downside for Hfc.


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