I respectfully disagree ..... forward Q3 and 2014 profit estimates are not priced in yet .....Holly still carrying a $4 premium to competitors that needs to be dealt with over the next few months......
Make a spread sheet with Q3 earnings and 2014 earnings for WNR, VLO, TSO, HFC, and PBF .......then overlay current stock prices......most over valued is HFC ....by a bunch.
But then again I posted this in Q1 and Q2 and was told I was very wrong when HFC was $57,$51 etc.
I am not here to bash....just trying to use the facts to predict where these stocks are heading in relationship to each other. For the record I own some HFC , VLO and PBF. But my weighted averages have changed monthly as the analysts have moved their projections.
I will be out of HFC after the divvys are paid.....then I will reload once the stock comes in to the proper valuation.
I agree. I have believed (much to my downfall) that the falling Brent/WTI gap was already priced in for the most part. This report confirms what I have thought. I just wish I could have factored in the psychological scare factor that a bunch of know nothing analyst could generate. Hopefully, this next quarter will see better operations, more reasonable blending targets for renewables, and a reduction in operating costs. I would also hope for better margins, but they are almost too good to be true! I remember a couple of years ago when it was almost unheard of to have a refining margin above $10/bbl. In fact, back in the day, the margins were regularly below $5/bbl.