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  • mdr0418 mdr0418 Feb 23, 2011 9:01 PM Flag

    What has changed ?

    It is important that you evaluate the reasons why you bought into the QCOR story and ask yourself if they are still intact. Here are my metrics which I measure each quarter to determine if I sell/hold or buy!

    1. Does the company have an exclusive cash generating pipeline that has little or no competition to possible erode sales?

    Answer: Yes they do, it's called Acthar.

    2. Do you believe in management and their business plan and are all the key players of th team still intact.

    Answer- Yes

    3. Are they still debt free and generating free cash flow.

    Answer: yes

    4. Are the sales overall growing sequentially quarter over quarter and is the overall growth story still remain intact.

    Answer: yes

    5. Are the margins both gross and net intact and are we able to maintain our price per scrip for each indication.

    Answer: yes

    6. Are the rebate allowances adequate to cover all future costs as not to erode the companies future profitability.

    Answer: yes

    7. Are there ample indications remaining in the pipeline other then IS, NS, and MS that can provide future growth for years to come?

    Answer: Yes

    I will be the first one to warn this board on anything that would lead me to believe that someting has materially changed with Questcor. Fact is that it is the exact same company with the same great growth story that put me in heavy at 3 dollars per share. My only issue potentially with Mr. Bailey is his inablity reduce our outstanding shares with some of the 127 million in cash. He had a few opportunities in hindsight at lower levels that would have been a better way to put our cash to work.

    The 5 conferences in March along with the stock buy back window opening up will move then stock North through March. The other nugget on the call that I heard loud and clear from Cartt is that we are having our strongest M/S sales month in the history of the company in February through the 23rd. This confirms sales traction and if March is sequentially better then Februrary it will be very rewarding quarter for shareholders.

    The main thing is do not get too caught up in the first call earnings estimates as they are determined by analysts without degrees in finance in many cases and more importantly without receiving guidance from the company on revenue projections.

    As long as the 7 items above pass my test each quarter then I am staying in for the long haul. My decision is to buy below 14 and on any dips.

    Long and Strong QCOR!

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