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Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR) Message Board

  • mclim73 mclim73 Dec 3, 2012 7:19 PM Flag

    looks like we'll have a #$%$ x-mas, QCOR wise

    and i thought we would head to 30s lol. man i admit i was fooled. i guess people were expecting Aetna to reverse course and say we will cover every single script written for Acthar.

    there are reason why shorts are smart i guess.
    either this will crash and burn and goto single digits or we'll get bought out someday.

    i'll be holding till 50s only selling half to diversify and let the ride to $100.

    4th quarter revenue thoughts.

    - Sandy, holidays
    - August was such a dam strong month, don't know if oct nov dec can match it

    bottom line, i'll be happy with just meeting expectations this time. im glad Aetna issue is over now.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Hang in there. There is a time risk involved in this short attack. The large whale hold both side of the short equation. The small short will get hurt by this play in the long run if the company stay on track. You may be looking at a 50 dollar stock in 9 months. Where are you going to find that kind of risk reward. Eventual the risk reward of the large whale will get smaller as time moves on. When it does the delta equation will return back to the buyer and sellers. Right now he owns the price not the stock. Its a big whale and eventual it will run out of thing to eat.. Hide yourself under a coral ref and let the whale swim buy.

    • looks like script data is coming soon $$$$$$$$$

      Visibility on Acthar prescriptions expected soon and could send shares sharply higher. PropThink had an opportunity to speak with Questcor on Friday, and management reiterated that insurance processing of Acthar prescriptions remains as it was before Aetna's bulletin. Each Acthar prescription is reviewed and processed one at a time. QCOR stopped publishing Acthar prescription trends on a monthly basis in October, making it harder, if not impossible, to gauge how the drug is doing in terms of sales and growth. IMS Health, the leader in prescription data, is just gaining access to Acthar prescriptions, as a contractual "block" on data from Curascript is now expiring. Curascript is the sole specialty pharmaceutical supplier that distributes Acthar Gel. As a result, Acthar trends could become visible again later this year or in early 2013 through IMS Health's prescription data. We believe the company is being selective about releasing Acthar prescription trends going forward, with the official word from Questcor that the calendar is not driving them with regard to releasing Acthar script data. Given the company's response, and our belief that management would want to put their own prescription trend data and analysis out in front of the IMS Health data, we would not be surprised to see an update on Acthar prescription trends over the next couple of weeks. Should unit volume of the product demonstrate flat to higher growth, we believe QCOR shares will react very favorably. Flat growth justifies significant cash flow and a higher valuation than where the stock currently trades.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Wait! Din't I tell ya 'bout da scriptz cumin out? Oh Boy is dey gonna shout, aye? lol

      • 1 Reply to nomadinx
      • For example, using a 4x sales multiple on Acthar's annual sales run-rate from 3Q 2012 ($560M) implies a market cap of $2.24 billion, or $37 per share. Of course, growth off of the current annual sales run-rate suggests this stock could rise even higher. PropThink's prior article notes that QCOR could trade into the high-$30 range, and potentially into the mid-$40 range on strong growth trends. As a result, the recent dip in QCOR offers a major buying opportunity.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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