Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR) Message Board

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  • abe_lincoln_is_back abe_lincoln_is_back • Jan 25, 2013 10:00 AM Flag

    Is QCOR A Possible Takeover Target By Big Pharma?

    A press release from F.S.E. states that big pharma is losing money due to patents on drugs expiring, and their takeover targets (a total of 676 in the last 3 years) have occurred with a average premium of 38%.

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    • drdonrs drdonrs • Jan 25, 2013 12:46 PM Flag

      A lot of speculation going on here. It appears to me that QCOR may just be arriving at the "sweet spot". The fact that Acthar requires pre-authorization and evaluation for each new Rx does not preclude growth. The fact that the company has made an acquisition which sweetens the pot will not go unnoticed. There is no debt and an incredible cash flow. All these things will add to the momentum at earnings time. The probe by some reward seeking DA in PA. may very likely end up as an inconsequential smokescreen. The risk/reward here tilts very much towards reward. There are a goodly number of shorts who have to be sitting on pins and needles. Is this a buy and put away? Not at all, but a doubling of the pps and then some is very much in the picture. I do not believe, for one minute, that management is sitting on their hands.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • holidayinnandout holidayinnandout • Jan 25, 2013 12:27 PM Flag

      Big pharma would get QCOR and the manufacturer of QCOR's drug.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • tatensolo tatensolo • Jan 25, 2013 11:27 AM Flag

      Well, if big pharma wants to offset patent expirations with M&A, QCOR would not be of much help, now would it? Lat I checked they own no patents whatsoever and have no pipeline. Big pharma buys pipelines, and they usually overpay for them. I think QCOR as a cash cow is more likely a target for Private Equity, where they can laod up on debt, pay themselves dividends and get a return in a short period of time and if the co dies after taht so be it and if it does not then they take it public again or sell it to someone else and make even more money. I am long QCOR, I just don't see big pharma being interested.

    • holidayinnandout holidayinnandout • Jan 25, 2013 11:10 AM Flag

      Five Star Equity Research said, "Major revenue loss from patent expirations forces big pharma companies to look to the biotech industry for replacements."
      Then they list QCOR and SQNM on the same page.
      What would you think?
      I know what I think.
      They had a conversation with Henry Gosebruch, Managing Director, Mergers & Acquisitions J.P. Morgan----Did you ever hear of J. P. Morgan?
      He is the managing director of mergers and acquisitions---hint--hint

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to holidayinnandout
      • maxdad01 maxdad01 • Jan 25, 2013 12:58 PM Flag

        Henry Gosebruch joined JPM shortly after I left but had almost an instant reputation as a wunderkind. I have met him a few times and while he is brilliant he is also an amazingly arrogant German (probably deserved though I don't believe any of these guys deserve their arrogance). He does have a great standing on the street. We did try to recruit him several times at GS.

    • holidayinnandout holidayinnandout • Jan 25, 2013 11:00 AM Flag

      Big pharma does not lose money....They make money with takeover targets....
      And they have the money ($70 Billion Cash) to make it happen.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • holidayinnandout holidayinnandout • Jan 25, 2013 10:56 AM Flag

      It would make a nice retirement nest-egg for President and CEO Don Bailey...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • holidayinnandout holidayinnandout • Jan 25, 2013 10:32 AM Flag

      Lazard Research (in the last couple weeks) gave QCOR a price target of $74.....
      So, if QCOR went by 38% added to $74, the takeover target price would be $102 per share (or in the neighborhood of).
      Yes, yes, and yes.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to holidayinnandout
      • maxdad01 maxdad01 • Jan 25, 2013 11:05 AM Flag

        As someone who made a living in Pharma M&A I believe that Questcor's most likely suitor would be a company that sports a high P/E and is looking for both growth and cash flow
        without debt. Industry average p/e (though that is by no means the only measure used) is around 20 with a significant variance. So an acquisition by a company with a P/E of 30 would find any P/E for QCOR up to 30 accretive (a gross oversimplification). At $5.00 per share EPS for 2013...well just do the math !!!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • holidayinnandout holidayinnandout • Jan 25, 2013 10:15 AM Flag

      So, QCOR at $32 would make it a takeover target for $44 if you're going by the average premium of 38% (my opinion - if it was to be)

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • holidayinnandout holidayinnandout • Jan 25, 2013 10:07 AM Flag

      (part 2)
      Next, they state how five of the biggest drug makers in the U.S. have over $70 billion in cash....
      Henry Gosebruch, Managing Director, Mergers & Acquisitions J.P. Morgan. "When you put that together with record levels of cash available and improving, but still moderate R&D productivity, we think there will be more big pharma Mergers &Acquisition activity in 2013."
      Then the article talks about how QCOR and SQNM are ripe for the taking...like 2 little sheep surrounded by 5 hungry wolves.....

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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