from BAC/ML commentary on QCOR dated Oct 12, 2012
regarding NS, the report stated..."significant longer-term revenue driver". Significant is the operative word. Furthermore, they explained their price target was $36 after allowing for possible penalties by the USAO in Eastern PA, but their NPV was $64/share. Even using their drastically lowered price target of $36/share, that is still 33% above today's PPS.
Rock and Roll QCOR!
As I have posted (ad nauseum), my analysis and resultant forecast is that Acthar for NS is not only the biggest driver (as already demonstrated since my earliest post) for Questcor but has the potential to be a hockey stick (Asymptotic) growth formation and a TOTAL GAME CHANGER FOR QUESTCOR. This is based on reasonable estimates of market availability and probable %'s for Questcor's usage beginning with over 100,000 Americans lost to Kidney Failure every year AND the fact that each course of treatment with Acthar is 4-6 vials (some have shown 6 to 8) at $25-30k per dose. Even the small market penetration already accomplished produces very large dollars at very high margins...AND we do not yet really know how successful the American Kidney Society Annual Meeting (last Novemeber) follow-up has been though they did bring their recently enlarged technical and sales staff en force. Earliest results should begin to show in Q4 but really emerge starting in Q1. Thus the Acthar for NS growth the company has already shared with us is largely organic and NOT (YET) event driven. Key metric is to watch what happens to NS in Q1 and Q2 of this year!!!