Medicaid could kick in another $50 million in 2013.
Upgrading revenue to 797 million based on Rhuem indications, Biovectra, etc.
EPS for 2013 $5.38
WAY TOO LOW...MY BOTTOMS UP ESTIMATE IS $6.79 EPS IN 2013...
$5.38 REPRESENTS ZERO GROWTH ($1.09x4=$4.36 PLUS 70 CENTS FEDS PLUS 5-10 CENTS BIOVECTRA)= ZERO GROWTH AFTER A 150% GROWTH IN 2012...RIDICULOUS!!! $6.79 IS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE EPS FOR 2013
$5.38 is with ZERO GROWTH as I posted earlier...VERY CONSERVATIVE!!! Just add up the numbers as follows:
1. Annualize Q4 of $1.09 = $4.36
2. Add 70 to 80 cents from Federal reimbursement changes (remember every dime there drops directly to bottom line before taxes).
3. Add another nickel to dime for Biovectra
TOTAL IS $5.11 TO $5.26 WITH ZERO GROWTH...NOW RUN GROWTH MULTIPLES INTO THE EQUATION AND THEN START TO WATCH THE P/E and PEG ratios catch up and exceed industry averages (20X and .88 respectively). .88 is just for pharma NOT biotechs which raise that multiple significantly.
I DID POST MODEL UPDATE WITH FRESH DATA FROM EARNINGS...$6.79 (including both fed reimb and small contribution from Biovectra)...$1.29 in Q1. Solid on Q1, 2013 maybe higher or lower based on how hard and fast NS moves and how fast Rheumatology really kicks in...BOTH A FUNCTION of learning curve and sales cycle of new crop of reps. More details were provided in earlier post.