công ty Questcor Pharmaceuticals Message Board

  • roughcut@att.net roughcut Feb 28, 2013 1:35 PM Flag

    What the price action tells me

    I've been trading for a very long time. In my experience severely undervalued companies with excellent growth are often targets of an acquisition. We are not the only ones who see the value in QCOR. It would not surprise me to see a company push the price down than acquire QCOR. Acthar would make an excellent addition for a company with slow growth and establish product lines.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I read the thread (not sure why) and I'm just going to say it... take it for what it's worth...

      I'm personally a little tired of the buyout conversations that seem to pop up whenever the stock moves up and then stalls for a day or two.

      Yes it's possible, yes it would be a nice quick cash out for us, yes it would burn the shorts, no it isn't going to happen or at least you should not plan on it happening anytime soon.

      • 1 Reply to mikeylikesit33_99
      • roughcut@att.net roughcut Feb 28, 2013 9:45 PM Flag

        You may be correct Mikeylikesit33_99 you are one of the posters on this board that I read.( along with maxdad and a few others.) I consider it only because like I said in my first post, I have been trading for a very long time. I was around for both the Mirage and US foods, when they were bought out. I still remember the tender offer for US foods. Something most people said would never happen. It did. I see similarities, that's all. Doesn't really matter to me, my price target is similar to yours, and I will be holding.

    • QCOR is a cash cow and a growth Godzilla, and margin maniac. I still agree that QCOR potential is just skimming the surface, so unless someone comes with an extra large check 10 billion or so QCOR may not be in play.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Board of Directors is the only party that can approve a buyout. So if someone is driving the PPS down so they can get it cheaper, will not work. BOD knows what the company is worth and will not sell for anything below what they feel it is worth..

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Zumbody saw a Pfizer bot, parked in in da Questcor parkin lot.

    • Rough, I've spent my entire career on the M&A side and NOT a trader. There is, in my opinion, no way Questcor would be or should be in play at this time. Not even close to fulfilling their true market potential (and associated financials) and would never get suitable multiples for management, board and especially institutional holders. However, I believe it is on just about every major pharma's active radar and potentially a leveraged jv play for additional markets (indications and/or geography) and that is something management should and would look at. I also think cash rich pharmas could take a position with future plans for Questcor. Finally, the 2017 Orphan expiration (not as big a deal as many because of severe manufacturing complexities) would be factored into any acquisition...They need to pick up another 7 year Orphan for long tail DCF before they should ever consider any offer...changes the math completely. They have 18 to pick from though figuring out their target (with a backup or two) will require pretty extensive analysis and is most likely already on the drawing boards.

      • 2 Replies to maxdad01
      • roughcut@att.net roughcut Feb 28, 2013 2:19 PM Flag

        An excellent response maxdad. I concur that a potentially leveraged JV play for additional markets may be in the cards. However, From the perspective of an acquirer, a hostile bid would be better placed before any extension of orphan status, would it not? As you said, Questcor is not close to fulfilling their market potential. That is why I am a buyer. It appears most of the float has been locked, how strong those hands are, or alliances they represent are at best unknown. This would not be the first time a great company was absorbed. I've spent my career purchasing companies on fundamentals first, technicals second. This is the type of company I buy. Buy out or not, I'm in either way until the company reaches my target.

      • Max: I would not rule out an acquisition completely. M&A can be very ego driven (i.e. lead to wrong decisions - just take the failed Daimler acquisition of Chrysler) and the numbers that QCOR has been producing for the last 2+ years is in fact impressive. For everybody who has seriously been following this board and its top producers (yours truly included:)) may kow better when the right time would be. I am not sure though if a cash rich company like Elan for example, that needs to deploy its cash rather sooner than later, is trying to buy QCOR before it "should be or would be in play." Never underestimate the fools (and I mean all the other ones out in the real world -- not the dilettantes from MF who live in their own little bubble:))