Only ONE WORD remains inhibiting Questcor's major moves North...
BUT !!! A little 3 letter word that inhabits virtually every negative blog post beginning with how SPECTACULAR QUESTCOR'S Earnings are...BUT !!! And then some variation of Just hold on for the really bad news, most of which is manufactured and ALL OF WHICH IS EXAGGERATED sometimes to staggering proportions:
BUT what about:
1. Aetna...horrible, terrible, destructive...BUT (my turn!!!) NOT real. No public evidence whatsoever that they're turning down valid coverage on any indication. All they did was tighten (quite publicly) the documentation and validation requirements to insure all other options had been pursued, which is exactly how it is supposed to work with Acthar.
BUT what about:
2. All the OTHER insurance carriers that will follow Aetna's move...See #1, NO real move to follow AND thus far nobody else has put any onerous restrictions whatsoever on Acthar. Again, it is being managed as it was designed...a last option for very serious or fatal conditions...WHICH BY THE WAY IS WHAT IS DRIVING 100% GROWTH !!!
BUT what about:
3. The Federal Investigation (you know the one in the Eastern District of PA)? All anyone here (or anywhere) knows at this point is that there is an INVESTIGATION (ONLY) into "marketing practices"...No ALLEGATIONS of wrong doing, NO CHARGES, NO DETAILS (which is what appears to be spooking the BLOGGERS NO END). IN FACT yesterday's Seeking Alpha article suggested that the fine (WHAT FINE???) could go as high as one years revenue!!! I've been dealing with Pharma Industry for 35 years and in my entire career (and it spans hundreds of firms) I have never seen, heard or in any way found a fine (FOR ANY VIOLATION, INCLUDING SOME THAT WERE OFF THE CHART AGGREGIOUS) that came anywhere close to one year's revenue...NEVER HAPPENED AND NEVER WILL!!! And that comment was provided to what is most likely a sales person's mis-step that will result (at most) with a slap on the wrist...NOT A BANKRUPTCY.
ce...so I'll leave it to the rest of you to complete all the various manipulative, deceptive, outright lying "BUTS" that have been hoisted upon this company's SPECTACULAR RESULTS...I just picked off the most obvious and aggregious (although ya gotta love yesterday's SA "potential criminal behavior" jab)...So have at it my friends while I return to good old fashioned substantive analysis...
I neglected to provide a conclusion to these thoughts...
What the sum and substance of all these "BUTS" amounts to is nothing more than hazy, mischaracterized (often outright lies) allegations and assertions of dire consequences VERSUS a long string of HARD EVIDENCE of STERLING GROWTH AND FINANCIAL SUCCESSES with no end in sight. These BUTS have clearly produced their intended impact yielding a P/E of single digits and an estimated forward P/E of around 5.0X when in most other non-BUT contexts most companies with the sustained performance of Questcor would be carrying a P/E of 30-40X or more (with a PEG ratio still below 1) and would be the darling of Wall Street.
Yes I am frustrated. NOT with the share price (that will come) but with what amounts to a masterfully orchestrated campaign to deceive and deny shareholders of anything resembling true value for a VERY SUCCESSFUL COMPANY. And for what (whom actually)??? For protecting a massive short position that when (ULTIMATELY) unwound will be devastating to those who believe that this game will go on indefinitely in the face of ROCK SOLID, SUBSTANTIAL EVIDENCE OF GREAT SUCCESS!!!