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Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR) Message Board

  • maxdad01 maxdad01 Mar 2, 2013 11:31 AM Flag

    Analysis of why current CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ARE RIDICULOUSLY TOO LOW !!!

    While I have a target EPS for 2013 of $6.79 (Q1 $1.29), the "in the bag" analysis is far easier, albeit a bit less than my estimate, though MUCH higher than consensus EPS estimate of $4.51 as follows:
    1. Annualize (4X for those who want to know how) 2012's Q4 of $1.09 = $4.36 Baseline
    2. Add (Using Merrill Lynch's 70 cent EPS increment) new Fed. reimb.= $ .80
    3. A miniscule 10 cent EPS contribution from Biovectra = $ .10
    Total EPS (and this assumes ZERO growth!!!) = $5.26 17% over consensus
    (NOTE for #2...since Questcor was receiving ZERO NET dollars from Medicaid Reimbursement )

    The implication from this simplest of analyses is that current Consensus Estimates would suggest that Questcor would actually have negative growth in 2013...Given that they just finished a year with over 100% growth and are just now bringing their 100 or so Nephrotic and Rheumatology field team reps on stream and into productivity (learning curves, sales cycles, etc.) one would have to be making a huge leap that Questcor earnings were going to shrink, and if anything should be looking at accelerated growth particularly in the second half of 2013. Even the most ruthless of short side analysts could not (HAS NOT) defend a NEGATIVE 17% growth for 2013 :-)

    I have run a full set of numbers using most current earnings, conference call updates and the exact financial reporting structure for 2013 and very conservative growth estimates (versus current trend) to derive 2013 EPS estimate of $6.79 which has a forward P/E of 5.00 right now...Q1 est. is $1.29...and for what it's worth my published estimate for Q4 was off by $.006 (that's six tenths of 1 cent).

    NOTE---THE ESTIMATES HAVE MADE NO ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL EARNINGS ACCRETIVE FROM FURTHER STOCK BUYBACKS!!!

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QCOR
93.600.00(0.00%)Aug 14 4:00 PMEDT

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