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công ty Questcor Pharmaceuticals Message Board

  • nyjohnnygrey nyjohnnygrey Mar 3, 2013 11:56 AM Flag

    The QCOR View on Fidelity

     

    Last week, on a scale of 1 to 10 w/10 the highest, QCOR was rated and 8.5 Now it has reason to a 9.1 just getting into the very bullish range.

    Very bullish to who? To the group of analysts whose data and opinions Fidelity uses ina propietary way.

    On the flip side, if one uses the technical analysis available on the website, one ses a support line at 25 -26 an a resistance line at 40. Fidelity doesnt do this themselves, they farm it out to another company, and I suspect this company influences the opinions of many retail, if not some institutional.

    Note that 33 is right in the middle of the just mentioned support resistance range.

    Based on my experience, stocks tend to stay within the range unless there's no catalysts for a long time, or negative or positive catalysts. Pretty much all my experience with this os in biopharma, btw.

    Often, the range lags what even an obsrver with limited experience and knowledge can see developing. For example, I belive the support is presently at 31-32, and the resistance at 41-43. This would suggest to me, who is intuitive, has some experience, and has made more right calls than wrong, that the worst case scenario 3 weeks from now would be the stock at about 37.50, given no catalysts.

    Just a few facts and my humble opinion. Tear away at it if you'd like, but I think most people on this board are compassionate as well as intelligent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • This is a riot ! Fidelity---with 3+ trillion in assets......farms this out ?? Get in the game. Everyone wants to do business with Fidelity & their thousand PMs/research staff.

    • Consider the upcoming Biovectra filing when we will find out the details of a fast growing company. From the research I could do on them, I'd expect some nice numbers. I have to caveat that with there is limited information on private companies obviously, but they seem to be doing good based on the original investors that started it, expanding the facilities and needing another expansion for upcoming contracts.

      Shorts know there is more potential good catalysts than negative ones now... that's why they are trying to scare people.

    • Hard to take a computer generated report as a true source of information other than a indicator of sentiment. It would not take a rocket scientist to figure out that sentiment is Bullish on QCOR. I have support levels at 32.50, 31.50, and 30. I have points of resistance both minor and major at 33, 33.80, 34.50 and 35. After 35 nothing until 40 at this point. I will tell you this after 33.80 sticks new investors will flock in as that point Bullish indicators will be off the charts. Presently the trend is still up, no bearish candle or chart indicators for me. Short interest has increased, reducing the PPS basis for them. Pressure building for them to make a decision to go long or go away. Confirmed by the action seen in the last few days, shorts have not been able to move the PPS significantly, even with their manipulation. One strong catalyst, one large accumulation, one move with the share buyback will make that decision more urgent. Time is running out.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to itsawhiz
      • In my assessment, the path with the least resistance is UP. The longs not only have been holding but also accumulating/adding whenever good opportunities present themselves. This has and continues to be a force for the shorts to be reckoned. This compounded pressure over time is what will ultimately make them capitulate. I say slow grinding up with unexpected spikes/upward surprises. The shorts have increased risks more than the longs do going forward.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • NJG...If you'll take a look at historical prices (much more interesting to me than simple charts) on Questcor going back a year or two you will notice (confirming your thesis here) that with the two exceptions of Questcor's stock price implosion last fall that their day to day, week to week trending is actually fairly moderate. One of the reasons I have forecasted a SHORT COVERING TSUNAMI (against their gentle traditional trading and trending patterns) is because that the decline WAS SO VIOLENT and more often than not when reversed (by fundamentals, in QCOR's case OVERWHELMING FUNDAMENTALS) the likelihood is that the recovery will be just as violent. Couple this with the mathematics of such a huge short position outstanding, exceedingly low float in the face of continued sterling performance versus ludicrous P/E and you have the equation for A PERFERCT STORM in terms of the SHORT SQUEEZE when it does occur. And have no doubt, at this point it is 100% inevitable. Hard to say when, and you know I really did believe it would kick in right around this last Q's earnings...But the longer it lingers the more powerful it will be. Just make sure you're fully loaded when it does happen because it almost certainly will take everyone here (longs and shorts) by surprise...when it should be no surprise at all :-)