We believe that as investor concerns dissipate over 2013, Questcor's stock price should recover its losses and reach new highs. Questcor currently trades at $31.39 per share (58.5 MM shares) and as of December 31st the Company had $155MM of cash and cash equivalent (or $2.65 per share in cash), no debt, and an EV of $1.67B. The company reported 4Q12 GAAP diluted EPS of $1.03 (or $4.12 annualized). Ex the cash per share, shares of Questcor are currently trading at a P/E or 7. Compared with the current S&P 500 P/E of 17.5, Questcor is trading at an extreme discount, particularly for a company that has exhibited net sales increases of 31%, 90%, and 133% per year since 2009 (not to mention consistent record quarter over quarter sales and earnings). Based on our survey results, we expect that Questcor will continue to diversify its sales into additional therapeutic areas and will return to a P/E of at least 15 in 2013, a conservative estimate, sending the stock price north of $60/share.
My guess is $5.50 for 2013 and we'll have PE of 12 for $70 bucks... thats my worst case.
Best case is PE of 20 on earnings of $6.50 for $130s
Keep in mind that 1st Q GAAP numbers will account for Biovectra purchase (85cents)
Sorry MCLIM, it might be 85 cents FCF because they paid cash (I'd have to go back and check though that sounds about right)...It doesn't impact earnings other than what it's earnings contribute to Questcor...which should be 2-3 cents per quarter accretive contribution.
mclim..Not disputing your figures as you know more about it than I do but how are you getting 85 cents...I figured a little more than that. How many shares are you using. The purchase was 50 Mil...right?