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  • my_honest_opinion my_honest_opinion Apr 30, 2013 8:28 PM Flag

    key points

    imho, the two biggest highlights below, and the rest are either obviously good or not as important:

    1) ALS - biotech/drug approval sentiment is very favorable currently. This Ph II drug that's safe(and will likely have interim looks) could be a $500M-$1B mkt cap by itself - if this were a stand-alone company doing trials on a 60 yr old/already safe drug. QCOR holders are getting this upside for free.

    2) REAL revenues and momentum ahead with RA - pharman's right - did you guys hear the CEO's comment near the end of call:
    "But in the rheumatology, we think we have a number of different indications as like each one of those indications has a potential to be as big as MS or nephrotic syndrome."
    If NS is already half of the company's revenues and has $300M+ run-rate, and each of the various RA indications could be as big, QCOR could do more than $1B in rev just in RA alone.

    my 2 cents.

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    • This is definitely a bump message! Only those who are so blind that they refuse to hear and see can possible miss the potential in this one sub-set indication.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • MHO--

      Thanks for the shout out, and right, I continue to believe rheumatology is the game changer over the next two years. That said, the ALS trial is intriguing as well. Wish the cc had mentioned the promise of the animal trial that led to the FDA IND, but maybe that comes later.

      Overall--longs didn't get all we wanted from Q1. QCOR botched some key operational components which consequently hammered revenue. But demand for the product is perhaps stronger than ever, and the future is brighter than ever.

      Q2 will be pivotal as many longs have stated in this forum and looks to be off and running. I can wait.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • A quick thing that I picked up upon over the last day of reading the earnings release information.

      1) Did you guys check what their incentive goals are for this year? They have to achieve 50% operating income growth (from a $256 million base (not reliant on share count)) to get partial vesting in their bonus compensation. They have to achieve 100% to get their full bonus. If they achieve that given where the PE is right now, this stock is going way up. Also, taking into consideration Q1 numbers most of this is going to happen in Q2, Q3, and Q4.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • just one issue though, analyst from piper asked for MS trial clinical data and CEO did his spinning as there no clinical trial data.... what makes you so sure ALS will be successful ?! remember FDA approved ACTH in 1940s,..........
      So, now, QCOR moved their core business from IS to MS to NS to rheumatology
      what a joke

      Piper ask question about clinical data for efficacy of Acthar which was ignored and some bogus reply to avoid, this is the question from CC:
      David Amsellem – Piper Jaffray

      Thanks. Here are my few questions. Just firstly MS setting, given the lack of new clinical outcomes data or trial data and what’s your level of confidence that you could see sustained growth in volumes longer-term in MS? And then secondly, I think you had mentioned previously a registry in the DM/PM setting, so the question there is, when is the earliest we can expect to see outcomes data for patients in that setting?

      • 2 Replies to mickeyplaysit
      • 2550 vials shipped in April.... 2550... You are a smart guy... there were transitional issues well disclosed... no long here predicted the level of shortfall... however 2550 is 2550... that is a crapload of vials in 1 month... for fun... lets take the 4830 vials shipped (in a transitional Q) divide by 3 gives you 1610... so again for fun 2550 + 1610 +1610 = 5770... baseline vials to be shipped in 2nd Q... because we know MS exacerbations are seasonal... I bet MS scripts return to normal... add in all the other "NS and RA stuff"... I think they have a good shot at 7000 to 7500 vials in 2nd Q....

        Again, 2550.


    • co May 1, 2013 6:14 AM Flag


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • good pts honest

    • mho, your 2 cents might be worth thousands!!