BOTH LONGS AND SHORTS GOT IT RIGHT AND GOT IT WRONG
Shorts clearly felt that Q1 was going to be a disaster and it WAS and they were RIGHT ABOUT Q1.
Longs (including yours truly) believed that the issues associated with Q1 were being managed and they clearly were NOT and we (I) totally blew it on Q1 results...Blew it BIG TIME!!! And destroyed my unblemished track record :-)
BUT the short side never came to terms with how these one time events WERE ONE TIME EVENTS, NOT PERMANENT ISSUES. And NEVER could have expected as positive forward looking statements (INCLUDING AN ALREADY IN THE BAG APRIL RECORD SALES #)...Frankly, neither did I because I thought that they were doing what was needed to keep it controlled and mostly in the first Q. Many longs, myself included, acknowledged that 2013 WAS GOING TO BE BACK END LOADED and I have not altered my view on that one iota. I had concerns about Q1 and they were that we (ALL OF US) didn't know how severe the transitional and timing issues could be and I grossly underestimated them.
CONVERSELY WHAT WAS HORRENDOUS FOR Q1 is now incredible support for Q2-EOY and beyond. Pay close attention to ALL (and there were MANY) the strategic and operational actions underway...New reps coming up to speed, NS having traction and RA getting it rapidly, MS coming back. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY PAY ATTENTION TO THE GAME CHANGERS...LUPUS and ALS in particular. LUPUS huge market desperate for better meds. ALS much smaller market but CRITICAL PATIENTS WITH DEATH SENTENCES AND NO RX TO TURN TO AT ALL !!! Perfect candidate for WHAT THEY ANNOUNCED that they have ALREADY FILED FOR ALS TO GIVE THEM NEW ORPHAN STATUS PROTECTING THEM FROM 2017 TO 2027. Mouse trials last fall were VERY ENCOURAGING AND they have already been approved for Stage 2 ALS EFFICACY TRIALS and no need for safety trial work (Proven and DONE). Because of the nature of ALS and NOTHING available even modest indications in trials that it slows progression and/or abates symptoms will guarantee fast track for desperate patients