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Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR) Message Board

  • pharmaman58 pharmaman58 Jun 21, 2013 7:21 AM Flag

    my favorite subject--rheumatology

    Lots of talk about Synacthen acquisition, ALS and DN trials, and all these developments are very exciting. The resulting revenue is also down the road a bit.

    I continue to believe the rheumatology indications will contribute to revenue beyond expectations in Q2, 3 and 4 and then ramp thru 2014.

    Remember Bailey's words: there are 5 or 6 FDA-approved rheumatology indications with potential to grow as big as NS. NS is projected by several analysts at $285-$295 million in 2013 revenue.

    Then remember, this is Don Bailey making this projection--a CEO who wants the bird in hand and fed and trained and domesticated and fertile before he makes a public statement.

    Now here's the best part...these indications all generate scripts from the same doc. How efficient is that.

    There are also two or three promising off label rheumatology indications--probably foremost is acute gout--a debilitating inflammatory disorder where first line treatments are ineffective for 20-30% of patients and the American College of Rheumatology guidelines already name ACTH as a recommended treatment for a small subset of refractory, steroid-intolerant patients.

    Add it up conservatively: say $250M x 5 indications = $1.25 billion. The path to this revenue presents only two reasonably low hurdles to jump: a low N number study and a detail effort.

    Short thesis? Truth is, there is no short thesis. That's what mikey's article so eloquently argued. Just shorts hanging on--hoping for a misstep by QCOR they can exaggerate the way they exaggerated Aetna, hoping for devastating news from somewhere/anywhere, hoping to be saved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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