I think buying them is too aggressive. Short interest on 7/15 and 7/30 will determine the pps in August and we don't know what it is going to be. I believe that we close at around 52 before the ER, spike to 55-56 within a week after ER and stabilize at around that range for a while. I don't see QCOR going above 57-58 before August OPEX date.
I got burned on OTM calls in Q4 '12, so now I only buy ITM/ATM/NTM. I went for the August 47 strike; if we hit your collective targets of 52 (I think we'll see a volatility induced spike higher than that tbh) I'll be fine. Any profit is good :)
I don't necessarily intend to hold the calls until August expiration. I agree with your assessment mostly ($52 for before earnings - I think it could go as high as $54 before earnings as there could be a pretty good short exit right after Friday's expiration) and a spike to $55-$56 right after. But if that comes true, the August $60 calls will be worth $2.50 - for the shorts who chose to remain in the stock there will be a huge run to buy August $60's as a hedge against their short position. Plus, the options will just be worth more as they approach being in the money. So, selling them for $2.50 after buying them for $.40, makes a pretty good profit. I still have all of my core position and a pretty good size position of LEAPS (Jan. 2015 $27 calls - averaged price around $11 and Jan. 2015 $25 calls - averaged priced around $16). So, I am not looking to hold the August ones until expiration.
See, i think once we get a good earnings release, the funds that have been eyeing this for awhile will finally get confirmation that they are out of the darkness. Add to that Questcor's market cap which is double of last year at this time, and you have an new class of funds that can begin investing as it moves from small to a mid-cap pharma.
I agree with your thought process, but it will take time for the funds to analyze and make a move. We will have 13 trading days after ER and before OPEX. Remaining shorts will be trying to suppress the pps to cover, Funds may or may not make a quick move before OPEX, there will be some profit taking from safe players and traders and some longs expecting a HUGE SQUEEZE will say "fvckkk it" and move on. This is the way I see it. I will be very happy to be wrong here.