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  • pharmaman58 pharmaman58 Aug 18, 2013 11:57 AM Flag

    Acthar revenue opportunities

    Not a complete list, but compiled notes from QCOR presentations/analyst dialogs/my research, and best-guess, conservative revenue estimates:

    1. Rheumatology.
    PM/DM launched, RA and lupus appear to be next targets.
    Revenue estimates: 2014--$275M; 2015--$365M.

    2. Pulmonology.
    Sarcoidosis launches with Q4 pilot. COPD is a potential long term game changer here.
    Revenue estimates: 2014--$26M; 2015--$75M.

    3. Dermatology.
    Refractory erythema and Stevens-Johnson syndrome would appear to be strong initial targets. My best estimate: 15-20,000 patients each.
    Revenue estimates: 2014--$00; 2015--$15M from pilot.

    4. Ophthalmology.
    Refractory uveitis and optic neuritis would appear to be strong initial targets. My best estimate of patient population: 20,000 for uveitis (15% of total population); 15,000 for optic neuritis (10% of total population).
    Revenue estimates: 2014--$00; 2015--$15M from pilot.

    Discounting potential game changers with both DN and ALS indications.
    Projecting relatively nominal revenue increases (5%) in IS, MS and NS.
    Adding token Synacthen revenue of $5M based on QCOR's seeming plans for a country by country roll out with no significant revenue impact till 2016.
    Projecting Biovectra revenue at $36M.
    Pilots for both dermatology and ophthalmology in 2015--aggressive but do-able I believe.

    2014 revenue projection--$1.1 billion
    2015 revenue projection--$1.4 billion

    Just sayin'--the QCOR growth story is far from over.
    Comment welcome.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Pharmaman, Trusting your judgment regarding sales increases PLUS looking at QCOR's historical ability to deliver, I will not be surprised to see your number surpassed. In other words, I would be surprised to see your targets fall short by even one cent. Thank you for taking the time to put this together. It will be interesting to see Maxdad's numbers. His initial "poke" of $187 to $234. Gives us an average of $210 or more than double 2013 EOY pps of $100. This has the potential to make 2015 Leaps worth sifting for the ones with most potential. Jim

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to jim+long+iii
      • Jim--
        You could well be correct on the revenue numbers. My "poke" errs on the conservative side and discounts the impact of positive clinical study developments, which are more likely than not.

        Here's one possible "good news" scenario out of several on the table: solid study results for lupus.

        Now...that gets interesting fast. Lupus is treated mostly by rheumatologists, where QCOR is now entrenched--so easy to imagine a few hundred lupus scripts in the second quarter after a positive publication. Remember, early data has been promising as mentioned at a couple of conferences, but detail reps can't really beat the drum until data is published.

        Dermatologists also treat lupus (when it exhibits as cutaneous lupus) and myositis (where a significant percentage of patients have skin issues)--my research indicates about 25% of practicing derms have lupus patients with about 10% treating myositis patients. So, right there is the impetus for a pilot with dermatologists--where Acthar has other on label indications.

        And one more unrelated idea--shorts generally attack at the slowest point of the news cycle--which will likely be late September/early October. I'm holding some reserve just in case they succeed in driving the share price a buck or two under $65.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • +BUMP Great list compiled by someone who KNOWS the industry. This is why I'm holding ALL my Leaps through year end now.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I expect clinical result for ALS sometimes next year, if good, we might see fast track and get some revenue in 2015. Just my guess.