Longs are convinced that the company will continue to essentially print money from Acthar sales, and that share price is ridiculously undervalued. Acthar sales leaped 62% year over year in Q3, generating $227 million in revenue. At its current price to earnings ratio of roughly 12, you can't help but think Questcor is grossly undervalued.
To put this into context, the average PE ratio in the sector has blown up to over 30 lately. Yet, the market isn't willing to pay a premium on Questcor's current earnings, and is massively discounting its future earnings. In fact, 30% of the float is now short. Shorts are apparently convinced that Questcor is going to blow up.
But I also believe that the company will receive little more than a minor fine, and lay most of the blame at the foot of the Chronic Disease Fund, or CDF. In that case, Questcor is probably going to leave shorts with a fair amount of egg on their face, and eye-watering losses in their portfolios.
The short argument is not a new one. The argument was in place last July 29, 2013 when second quarter earnings came out and there was a MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE that propelled the stock up 30% on July 30, 2013, this is fact, so why does SA not even consider fact? This has ACTUALLY HAPPENED, folks, and it will happen again. SA has a short bias, even in the above seemingly positive comments, it appears SA to be almost throwing in the towel when they say "buy some other stock without all this risk"....but the longs who have been around for 3-4 quarters see a very predictable outcome holding this stock, just like July 30 of last yr.....................................for us to listen to folks who have "no skin the the game" is folly, it makes so much more sense to listen to folks who have massive skin in the game, and have made massive profits holding this stock.......