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Natcore Technology Inc. Message Board

  • chris.marcocci chris.marcocci Mar 17, 2012 10:26 PM Flag

    holy crap the post below for solar 3d

    i actually went to there site and checked out what there all about. they are projected to hit 25% efficiency. they will have the prototype done this coming quarter and they found away to absorb more light throughout the day without using tracking systems. its a wide angel lense that collects light from a horizontile position like in the morning and evening. they said the over all pay back rate will be reduced from 10-15 years to only 6-9. more efficiency and less cost what more could possible partner or customer want.


    if there prototype works they could be huge. i suggest you at least look into it.

    i just baught 40,000 shares because there at a low right now.

    waiting on the news for the prototype. can't wait.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • You bought 40,000 shares today! That's half of today's volume.

    • Well also understand the solar power industry as a whole also has a problem.

      There is no super positive slam dunk way to predict the working life on any solar cell if you were to radically change the method of producing it.

      The solar industry in general creeps along, any changes in methods or techniques are super small incremental and takes light years to actually incorporate into production so the potential warranty problems aren't a big factor from the business side of it.

      But come along and do what Provini sezs and introduce radical disruptive change, even if it is superior and the idea of how do you predict working life / warranty consideration does come into play.

      That was demo'd in the technology Nanosolar brought out. A sort of printed thin film method which was radical, probably lower costs but certainly had questions about what the working life might be. Their conversion rate was also sort of miserable (around 6 - 7%) but probably disruptive enough that many companies would not touch it.

      Nanosolar sort of solved it by dedicating all factory output to one project with a JV partner. Somehow in the real World you will have to generate working experience.

      That is probably one big problem Natcore will face as will any other radical change to existing methodologies. Make the improvement super good enough and many solar companies will find a way to accomodate the risk.

      Part of what Natcore has to maneuver around at present, either be not too bold or be super bold with radical improvements.

      I do look for some solar company to try the black silicon and LPD process on at least part of their production sometime in 2012. Maybe MX. Maybe they will give Natcore a try and dedicate the output to one big solar farm project to get the feet wet. That is typically what I would expect for any disruptive technology.

      But also understand you probably aren't going to see rapid whole scale change over from anybody until they have a way of addressing the warranty potential problem in their own minds.

      In a way the entire solar industry is stuck in a jam. They want massive expansion of the industry but a bit risk adverse. Natcore should have gotten a bunch of government money because the funding of research ain't in the cards for a lot of solar companies no matter what they claim.

      Natcore should work great once they get by all the road blocks in their way. They alone probably can pull off the idea of huge increases in conversion efficiency if they can get the necessary funding. Even with small baby steps, somebody will finally be tempted to come onboard and get some working experience with what should become the technology of the future.

      Plus it is not just Natcore. Other folks technology like in silicon spliting for thinner wafers can be finally used if Natcores methods are adopted. It can finally start to be the total sum of what can finally start to get the solar industry to parity.

      Natcore is also in a bit of a rare position too. If / when they can actually start to produce demo solar cells that have radical increases in efficiency like by many percent, then a bunch of solar companies will have to fish or cut bait. Find a way to incorporate it into their production on some scale, again probably as sort of experimental at first.

      Just doing proof of principle at this stage should be attracting some money. Hopefully DOE / NREL will finally start to provide some research grants. You got to be able to hold the claim in your own two wee hands.

      • 1 Reply to click_bolt
      • I did go back and check what happened to Nanosolar.

        They sort of solved the warranty problem by offering an insurance policy and they did increase their efficiency up to about 11% and are now selling to more than one customer but limiting it to mostly larger solar farm type applications. There could still be valid questions about how Nanosolar's panels might age and especially so as they are tending to incorporate technology change as they go. Some method of insurance is a good answer for that risk.

        What this should do is start to put pressure on the more conventional solar manufactures that essentially have no technology answer to rapid progress.

        There will be consolidation in the industry. At some point a lot of folks have to start to look around for radical change that they might incorporate and probably fairly quick. Who / how do we get well beyond the present conversion rates? Natcore probably can be the leader there given a lil time and money.

        Natcore is one of the few development / research companies that can offer something reasonably quick with probably reasonably expectations of technology break thrus.

        Look for somebody to try Natcore's methods within the next few months. Provini probably ain't ready to give away the store and may be concerned about IP theft, especially fron China.

        Maybe even a JV with manufacturing in the USA, Provini probably wants that as the first choice. Anything to start cash flow and then work forward with real disruptive technology that probably nobody else will have an answer for.

        Stock real, real cheap at this point. Just one right PR could bring at least a quick double or more in SP.

        The Nanosolar model of doing business should start to be instructive to the rest of the industry. Nanosolar is a private company but are under going fairly rapid expansion when the rest of the industry is probably in a general state of contraction. Lot of solar companies have to start looking for technology change and Natcore is probably the answer for a lot of them.

 
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