Before i was long,i mean holding calls.but now i hold puts.(change my minde)
Now i hold IDCC september puts.I think i make a rite choice.We will see what can happen next week after earnings.If they miss the price can't hold in my opinion.If after earning price drops,then what is the reason AAPL or GOOG will buy IDCC @72 or higher?.I am not saying buy out will not happen.It may happen but may be late or not at this price.It's all depend on earnings.I know i lost on some stocks,but at the same time i make some on others.I wish all good luck.Longs and shorts.We all heare to make money in our decision.Have a nice weekend.See you in monday.
I would respectfully suggest that there was probably an extensive process occurring prior to the weekends you refer to on which the final bids were selected. That is indeed the final step, but it typically culminates a months-long process.
I have never been a part of nor have I ever heard of an auction of a public company that from start to finish lasted only two days. Boards of Directors have a fiduciary duty once they decide to sell a company to maximize shareholder value. They tend to move very mthodically in satisfying that obligation.
I've seen two big deals, one that we missed, and one that we got only take 1 weekend to hash out the basic agreement on. We left the office on Friday and when we came back on Monday there was the email along with the public press release that we had won the most recent really big one. The other one we lost, that showed up as a public press release on the newservices (Cardinal Health won) and everyone around the office was thinking "darn! we missed" because that would have been a big fish for our product portfolio.
A fast auction does not give the parties time to think and it also allows those that are prepared, or those that have money to burn to just swoop in and do what they want and get what they want.
p.s. Not to mention the time it takes to negotiate and document a DMA (Definitive Merger Agreement). One thing is certain, by the time this thing is said and done the current crop of ADD daytarders will be long gone.
While GOOG, AAPL, or any other acquirer of IDCC will take any current or future revenue stream from InterDigital's patents, it would only be the icing on the cake for them. They are interested in these assets for one main purpose: LEGAL PROTECTION. AAPL just settled with Nokia on iPhone infringement, GOOG's Droid cohorts HTC and Samsung are currently in a legal mess with AAPL, and GOOG itself is being sued by Oracle. GOOG's CEO has stated that they are hell-bent on defending themselves and the Droid faithful at all costs, and AAPL doesn't want to add any more major settlements to their tab than they have to. The sale of IDCC's patents and IP will be done purely out of fear by the buyer(s). Any revenue streams they receive as a result of their ownership will just be considered a rebate.
Keep in mind folks that the expected opening bid for the Nortel patents was predicted to be between $400 and $700 million. Google started the bidding at $900 million and the final price was $4.5B. Checking all the news feeds prior to the auction I can find not one single reporter or analyst saying they would sell for anything over $1.5B. They were off by 300%, and they were low.
You are correct about your assumption on Cooperative basis. I would think Google with its army of IP lawyers is probably knee deep in its due diligence and may already have a starting point for negotiations.
I would still not expect a deal to be announced anytime soon.....most optimistic scenario would be a month or so.
My target is another $25 from this price so roughly $100. But like another poster has said, pretty much everyone is clueless in terms of pricing the patents and due to Nortel's sale at $4.5B, I would assume negotiations will start off at valuing the company at about $100. If another bidder comes in, then all bets are off and prices could go up another $50 but as off right now I don't think that is possible or being priced in.
Apple has a ton of cash but they have control over enough patents to not go after IDCC and throw billions. They, as a company are extremely conservative with their cash.
Good luck everyone (long or short)....play safe.
On the one hand, I think you might be right that this will take some time. After all, due diligence here consists of reviewing 6000 highly technical patents in the context of a competitive bidding environment. I also think you might be right that the ultimate buyout price is likely to be less than a simple extrapolation of the Nortel auction result would imply. On the other hand, I DO NOT believe that earnings (good or bad) will have any impact on the share price. The potential bidders here are not interested in IDCC as an operating business, only the strategic value of its IP.
There is no way anyone or any team of experts could review the 6800 patents and 10,000 applications. No way. So whoever buys IDCC will be doing it based on the gut feel their technical experts put on the whole package. Anyone in the business knows these patents and knows their value so it will boil down to who wants this pile of patents (and the engineers that are still making them) the most. We know what the Nortel patents sold for, and anybody that knows anything is well aware these patents are more valuable because they are relevant to where the technology is and is going in the future.
You don't understand what is going on. Earnings no longer matter. Google wants the patents for protection and that's as simple as it can get.
They need 'em, we got 'em, and they will pay a very high price for them.