Please state a total market cap amount. Not PPS. Any deals involving stock will have the share value figured at the closing price on the day of deal official announcement.
I am going with 6.4B
My theory is Google will offer lower. Around 4.7 Apple or another player will try to up the bid one time. Around 5.6. Google will then up its' bid to 6.4B and IDCC holders will be dancing in the streets.
Think this through now people. Just a thought...
Nokia has 10B cash can solve big problem... then big brother MSFT buys NOK and they have a great patent portfolio and their own ready to go phone/tablet manufacturer.
When VHC caught fire because of cellphone intellectual property, it went from $5 to $40 or 8X in a couple of months. Assuming a baseline here of $40, I think a similar 8X multiplier is justified. Target $320, or about $14B in market cap. Put another way, the portfolio is worth 3X more than Nortel which put the floor in.
Based on the Nortel 4.5 as a base. Since IDCC's are significantly better If not 2x I would up the base to $7B.
Add cash $700M and the value of the IDCC as an ongoing business anfd its valued engineering talent another $1b.
Total $8.7B/ 50 or $174.00/share would be fair.
If bidding gets intense it could go significantly higher.
Several players really need these patents to execute their business plan profitably.
And profit is what it is all about.
This same thread has been going on here: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_I/threadview?bn=28115&tid=27402&mid=27402
My guess is $8 billion. My range in $6B to $10B.
I think GOOG comes in higher than 4.7 billion....I think they start this in the 6 billion range and hope that AAPL stays away....they (GOOG) CANNOT let IDCC fall into AAPLs hands...GOOG needs to drop the nuke now and not play games