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InterDigital, Inc. Message Board

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  • joetong419 joetong419 Oct 1, 2011 11:24 AM Flag

    My Thoughts - Long Post with Links

    IDCC should know the outcome in 1 to 2 weeks? If true, that projected press release day is no later than 10/14/11.

    The hope is for a price expected to be 85-100; anything lower comes as a disappoitment. That's about a double with IDCC price falling.

    Can't tell if recent IDCC selloff from low 60s since 9/9/11 to 40s was from other factors like market selloff. Volume low - only good sign.

    Obviously, if IDCC continues to trade down into the 30s the next two weeks before the announcement, the handwriting is on the wall.

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    • Joetong, two comments on your most recent post:

      1. Two days earlier, on September 7, IDCC was trading around $70.00 per share, so the decline in price is even more dramatic.

      2. I think there is a lot of truth to the observation of someone on this board who said that the share price, determined as it is in 100 share lots by market makers, is not at all relevant to the value (and price) of the whole company to a potential buyer.

      That is, assuming the intrinsic value of IDCC was $XXXX, the sale of a few shares of the company in bad market conditions at $X wouldn't indicate that the value of the whole company was only one-quarter of the assumed $XXXX.

      In other words, the potential purchasers aren't dealing with a few nervous stockholders, they are dealing with the BOD and their investment advisers who presumably know the true value of the company. Makes sense to me.

      • 1 Reply to bustedbox2
      • From the data I recieve daily (although some of the info is renewed fortnightly (eg shares short).

        IDCC

        1.- Institutional ownership (% of float): 57.10% (used to be 59.60% 2 weeks ago). Institutions have sold aprox 1.1 millon shares these past weeks).

        2.- Shares short(% of float): 17.03% equals 7,663,414 shares (previous 8,013,400) means that only 350,000 shares were covered in the past 2 weeks.

        3.- Money flows
        Equity money flow score: 82 of 100
        Group money flow score: 47 of 100

        From my info provider: Equity money flow score is a propietary calculation based on the classic money flow metric. It is enhanced to evaluate direction of the money flow line & the position of the indicator relative to past peaks and troughs.
        Group money flow is an extension of the individual equity money flow score which summarizes the status of the money flow for the equity group.
        IDCC is classified in Technology/Telecommunications/Wireless communications
        ----------
        My opinion:

        I receive more data but this is what I want to share.

        2 Weeks ago the money flow was higher, in the 95 to 98 level and this was parallel to the intense daily activity (aprox 3 millon shares/day).
        The daily activity has fallen substantially but the share money flow remains fairly intact and much stronger than the group money flow. This is a relief for me.

        I feel that the institutional selling has been minimal considering the silence from the Co., the drawn out auction process, the negative state of the market in general & that we just had the end of the quarter.

        The short selling has also been minimal. Shorts must be very greedy or very confident. There is a massive short squeeze waiting to happen if we get good news from IDCC.

        I also think that if we wouldn't have this auction in process the falling of the share price from the 73$ level to the present 47$ level is a screaming SELL signal.

        What contrasts this sell signal is: the auction + the quality of IDCC assets & in the share information the medium and long term money that is still waiting. Waiting for this to be a success as we are.

 
IDCC
54.06-2.12(-3.77%)1:48 PMEDT