Personally I feel this doesn't require any sophisticated detective work.
Fact:Nortel was able to sell their patents for 4.5B.
Fact: Nortel wasn't able to generate significant income from said patents or they never would have gone BK.
Fact: Interdigital generates significant Income from their patents, enough to be a thriving company that even pays a small dividend.
Now ask yourself, which company most likely has the "best" IP?
You are very safe buying at these levels. It couldn't be more obvious. At this price it is very similar to many option positions in that you either make a nice profit (buyout) or you own the shares at a very good price. Can you say win win?
The info. that y'all post and re-post incessantly has been available for months... during which IDCC's share price has fallen from $80+ to the mid-$40's. If you want to attribute that share price decline to manipulation, then suit yourself. I, however, believe very strongly that the share price reflects the diminished expectation that IDCC will find a buyer or that if it does find a buyer, the price scuch buyer will be willing to pay is probably no more than $60 per share...which by the way would be a 33% premium from here...an excellent trade if it were to happen.
Agree 100%. The key (obvious) thing that some people seem to be missing is that all the premium from the buyout speculation in mid-July is now completely back out of the number. It's trading back in the range of early July before any of the talk even began. So really no risk now, with an incredible amount of upside, either by a buyout or even the buyout speculation, which is bound to come up again over the next month or two regardless.
But what time period could we be talking about ...a few months ??? Is it possible?? And what about Patent Review...could that still be going on??
With such a possible length of time to go, its hard to believe there won't be leaks...
<<But what time period could we be talking about ...a few months ??? Is it possible?? And what about Patent Review...could that still be going on??>>
No. Due diligence was completed around Labor Day. A first round auction was held. There were no bids for the whole company. The auction was called off. Since then, the bankers have been scrambling to assist in the formation of a group(s) to try to reach a negotiated deal. That process is dormant but "ongoing."
<<With such a possible length of time to go, its hard to believe there won't be leaks... >>
There have been leaks, you moron! What do you think DR and Bloomberg have been reporting????
Who knows the time frame? I'm a buyer of the stock so I am not pressed by time. I believe it is worth at least as much as Nortel and more likely it is worth significantly more than Nortel.
I believe they will be successful and generate significant licensing fees moving forward so if they don't sell I'm still satisfied holding it.
Plus we earn a dividend while we wait!
It could sell at anytime. Hard to predict that - a very complicated process is taking place.
Totally agree with you - Good common sense post.
Also consider IDCC has $700M in the bank, excellent engineers, a battle-tested law team, and significant recurring revenues.
If Nortel sold for $4.5B IDCC will sell for quite a bit more. Just look at this link comparing the LTE IP that is out there right now...IDCC has more patents than Nortel that are of higher quality and more relevance.
PLUS THEY PAY US A DIVIDEND to wait.