Ok, some say that the buyers aren't bidding or offering the valuation that IDCC wants, however, what if IDCC is asking for closer to $300 a share...let's break it down.
I'm not a patent expert, but let's assume all of IDCC's 10,000 patents pending get approved...that brings IDCC's patent portfolio to roughly 19,000.
We know Nortel sold for roughly $750,000 per patent ($4.5 billion/6,000), and I'm not sure how many, if all, Nortel had pending for approval....but at that rate applied to 19,000, that would bring IDCC to over $300 a share or $14 billion....
We know MMI sold for $12.5 billion, we know that MMI had 17,000 patents and another 7,500 patents pending for approval, which brings the rate to $500,000 per patent...so let's apply that rate to 19,000...
19,000 x $500,000 = $9.5 billion or roughly $200 a share....now if IDCC is asking for $200-$300 a share, then I could definitely see why bidders might be in a "holding period"
We know if IDCC sold for $4.5 billion, the same rate as Nortel, then it would be a $100 stock....let's see I think $150 would be happy medium where everyone is happy...so all you weaklings that are crying and worried about the deal and shouting out humble estimates of $70-$80 a share, get real...THE BOD DID NOT PUT THEM SELVES UP FOR SALE TO GET $75 a share.
What do you guys want to BOD to ask for? I think asking for $200 is fine, because it's always good to ask for a lot more, since many times it gets negotiated down. If IDCC is asking for $150, they might end up with closer to $100, and that's a huge discount to Nortel and Motorola
So...with all this said, we can expect the final sale to be in the neighborhood of $120+...I know it defies the "laws of gravity" from the typical 30% premium, but MMI and Nortel already did that.
I know if I was on the BOD, I would be shooting for at least $150, settling for no less than $120...I'm sure IDCC would get sued by shareholders if they sold for less than $120-$150 given what MMI and Nortel sold for...
Bottom line, Google is still interested, they are just trying to downplay their need/want for IDCC...and after losing the Nortel sale, they don't want to to see Apple get any stronger, and at the same time, we know that Apple sure in the helll doesn't want Google to have IDCC, then you throw Intel, QCOM, and Samsung in the mix and you have a bidding war...throw in MSFT too
I believe we are either in the 2nd round of bidding as we speak, or the 2nd round is about to start...
this was a great post till all the arguing with LIND started, that's why I'm trying to get people to put Lind on IGNORE so we can actually have good conversation and speculation about IDCC and the sale.
There is no point in arguing with Lind, he's just hear to play around and piss people off. You say you took Lind off ignore for humor, well you seem really ticked off about Lind in most or your recent posts.
PUT LIND ON IGNORE SO WE CAN DIMINISH HIS PRESENCE HERE....
Xray, this was a great post till all the arguing with LIND started, that's why I'm trying to get people to put Lind on IGNORE so we can actually have good conversation and speculation about IDCC and the sale.
There is no point in arguing with Lind, he's just hear to play around and piss people off. You say you took Lind off ignore for humor, well you seem really pisssed off about Lind in most or your recent posts.
PUT LIND ON IGNORE SO WE CAN DIMINISH HIS PRESENCE HERE
Once again AHOLE lind insists on referencing so called facts that are not facts at all.
There is no credible proof that the first round of bids failed. All we know is someone started a rumor that was later retracted. FACT!
NO WE ALL DO NOT KNOW "THE FIRST ROUND OF BIDS FAILED" YOU MISERABLE PIECE OF CRAP!
We have been in the second round, for over two weeks. Those who want to buy the company have formed Consortiums, two of them. Probably 8 or more companies want to buy IDCC.
Apple and Google have billions of dollars to spend, so no problem for them.
We should be looking forward to a price for the sale per share from $250.00 to much, much more.
According to Eric Schmidt, MMI's patents were a secondary consideration in the acquisition of MMI. (I always get a chuckle when the IDCC faithful divide the MMI deal price by the number of MMI patents in order to derive a "comp." for IDCC's patents. According to Schmidt, less than 12% of the MMI deal consideration was attributable to MMI's IP.)
As a leading handset manufacturer, I would assume that MMI had patents relating to proprietary (non-FRAND) technology that could be used to thwart competitors.
Lind, Spot on. If I were a company that held IP Patents in such a business, I would much prefer to go to court and obtain an injunction against another company. If done right it works. You definitely get the other companies attention and truly interrupt their business including manufacturing, logistics, seasonality, retail sales relationships and customer frustration. It seems to me maybe the legal costs would be lower over the long run versus licensing and enforcement.
Are their any law students on this board that wish to tackle this subject area?
IDCC has a focus on FRAND patents, which are precisely the ones you want if you are in the patent licensing business...which IDCC is. Unfortunately, FRAND patents have absolutely zero strategic value with respect to blocking competitors. This is precisely why whatever acquisition interest there has been in IDCC has been tepid at best. None of the potential acquirors want patents that they have a legal right to license at "fair and reasonable" rates (and then only after they lose protracted litigation). They want patents that can stop a competitor in its tracks. Patents that can force a competitor to redesign a machine. For the most part, IDCC does not have that kind of patent.
Good post DC. But I don't think IDCC will be bought at 100% premium. But I do think they are an extremely valauble patent rich company. Google or MSFT will likely end up buying them. Maybe 150 a share.
<<But I don't think IDCC will be bought at 100% premium. But I do think they are an extremely valauble patent rich company. Google or MSFT will likely end up buying them. Maybe 150 a share.>>
Are you stupid?
On the one hand, you state that you don't think IDCC will be bought out for a 100% preimum, and the other hand, you state that you think IDCC coold be purchased for $150 per share.
Are you aware that IDCC is a $45 stock, and that 100% of $45 is $45, and that $45 plus $45 equals $90?????????????? Dumb!
This is the closet comparable you are possibly going to find. Now once again, it comes down to understanding just what IDCC is working on, is that the future of mobile comm, or are they just a bunch of hacks?
We report, you decide!