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InterDigital, Inc. Message Board

  • appleonians appleonians Nov 11, 2011 7:14 PM Flag

    A VERY informative Post from IHUB..(LINK).

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    • <<Why don't you try bringing something constructive to the table?>>

      OK. Sell your IDCC long positions before the company formally announces the termination of the strategic alternatives process. It's really that simple.

    • You're a broken record. Why don't you try bringing something constructive to the table?

    • If that makes you sleep better at night, then so be it.

      For the record though, some of us saw your "9 out of 10 chance" as a 1 out of 10 chance and sold you the calls you bought. We made a small fortune, while you lost one. What is so hard to understand about that?

    • What is so hard to understand about a smart bet that still lost? For a simple example if you calculate you have a 9 out of 10 chance to double your money and you take the bet, you have made a smart bet. The 1 out of 10 chance may still hit, but it was still a smart bet.

      What is so hard about that concept?

    • I forgot to add that Nortel's wireless patent portfolio was only 30% or 1,800 patents, compared to IDCC's 17,000 (including pending approval), that's HUGE leverage of IDCC's side assuming most the companies that bid for Nortel were interested in wireless 3G, 4G/LTE, etc...that's probably why that made the statement how they have a patent portfolio that is deeper and stronger than Nortel's

      http://wirelessledger.com/Mpartners_morning_note_2011_11_9.pdf

      And that Forbes article about how the bidders would be willing to participate in a consortium "if InterDigital’s valuation demands are reasonable," well...what if IDCC is asking for $200 a share, and bringing it down to $150 would be reasonable?

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/10/11/interdigital-rallies-on-report-of-new-interest-from-some-bidders/

    • Dvermin, are you considering buying March calls? I'm going to put more money to work next week because my Nov calls expire, but I think I'm going to buy a bunch of March and Dec calls.

      Something tells me that if they don't get the deal done before Christmas, having March calls would be the way to go. I know the option market is often a good way to gauge the future direction of a stock, and seems like big bets have been placed on Dec calls.

      I'm kinda upset I didn't buy my March calls earlier this week when IDCC was around $42, I should have known the stock would eventually go back above $45, but they are still fairly cheap.

      The problem is there's a good chance the deal will be announce the following week after November expiration (right before Thanksgiving) or the week after Dec expiration (the week before Christmas), so I just hope I don't have to chase these shorter dated contracts all the way through Jan, that's another reason why I'm buying March.

      I'm sure you read the latest MPartners note on 11/9...it's actually very bullish and even a little coccky, so maybe MPartners got a hint from IDCC that things were going well.

      What's really bullish in that report is at the bottom of the second page it shows that 90% of IDCC's patents are for wireless technology...which is obviously going to be the hottest thing in tech for at least the next decade...10 years from now, all of us will have a phone that blows away anything currently on the market.

      And a lot of people don't realize that if a company like Apple buys IDCC, there's a lot of things they can do with the business model and the engineers, if Apple wants to create patents in the future that BLOCK Google and the others then they can, but right now IDCC is trying to make money buy producing patents that generate revenue through licensing.

      Also, vertical integration is always good for any company, and if there's three parts to the wireless smartphone triangle which are the handset, operating system, and wireless protocol (3G, 4G/LTE, etc) then IDCC would complete the triangle with IDCC, so maybe Jefferies is right, and IDCC is worth $3B-$10 billion to Apple, as an engineer, I think there's tons of future unrealized value in that IDCC could bring to a big company 20 years from now.

      So yeah, all this talk about IDCC selling for $70 or doing a share buyback is a joke, I don't think we will see anything less than $120, and will probably be closer to $150...and I'll explain why a little more in my next post :)

    • DS, at first I thought they were merely uninformed, so I studiously set out to inform them. In response they mocked me...even though I everything I explained to them came to pass. I think Info. did the best job of explaining their apparently irrational behavior in his post regarding the psychology og gambling and loss. We are observing a textbook case of group reinforced denial.

    • LD,

      I have never been short IDCC.

      Cheers.

    • It's called leverage. Go look it up and you won't need a Doctor. Instead of uying say 100 shares at $44, I can control the upward potential of around 900 shares with a strike price of $45 (Jan calls trading at $5.00/contract) and anything over $45 and I get huge gain for each $1.00 of stock move. My upside gains grow exponentially by holding calls rather than linerally if I held the shares.

    • Lind help me!..So somebody admits to having lost at something, and then decides to explain his losing strategy and asks if people like this..and then someone says YES?????????!!!!! What is wrong with these people. I don't think these people are this stupid..it can't be stupidity..is it blind greed..I don't know..Lind..anyone..can you explain this to me.

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