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SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • snogreen snogreen May 13, 2003 8:27 AM Flag

    Hep C, a $9 billion disease soon

    Not to lose our focus from the happenings in China, but this item just came across the Down Jones wires:

    <<Hepatitis C Drug Market to Grow from $2.5 Billion in 2002 to More Than $9 Billion in 2012

    05/13 8:03 am

    Schering-Plough and Roche Will Capitalize on Growth in this Market, but Considerable Opportunity Remains for Competitors, According to a New Study From Decision Resources

    WALTHAM, Mass., May 13

    Decision Resources, Inc., one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and health care issues, finds that the hepatitis C virus (HCV) drug market will grow from $2.5 billion in 2002 to more than $9 billion in 2012. A major factor contributing to growth over the next ten years will be an increase in the number of diagnosed patients, as patients who have been infected with HCV for more than 15 years present with advanced liver disease. Additional growth will come from the ever-expanding population of patients who did not respond to initial therapy, and are increasingly being retreated with a second course of interferon/ribavirin therapy and/or emerging antivirals, according to a new Pharmacor study entitled Hepatitis C.

    "Hepatitis C represents a high-growth opportunity for the biopharmaceutical industry over the next decade," said John Lebbos M.D., senior analyst at Decision Resources. "The HCV diagnosed patient population is expected to expand significantly and there remains a high unmet need: the combination PEG-IFN/ribavirin, which is the current standard of therapy, is associated with significant side effects and is not effective in a large subset of patients." >>>>

    If our HCV trials are okay, Zadaxin will be approved long before 2009.....and if the market is $9 billion....I think it highly do-able that SCLN could get on board there with 10% of it....or $900 million. Hell, I think it is possoble SCLN could do over $40 million sales THIS year!

    With about 40 million shares...in a $900 million potential (worldwide) for SCLN in HCV (this does NOT include Hep B or other cancer applications)...and an 80% gross margin....with low overhead...and a hopefully good licsensing deal with Roche.....the numbers for SCLN's earnings per share start to rise very, very rapidly. Then just put any kind of PE ratio you want....15x...20x...25x...or 30 times earnings...high or low PE ratio...you still come up with a large dollar figure!

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    • Yes, I feel better. Every liver test is perfect; blood tests completely changed: RBC (+ 30%), HGB (+ 25%), MCH (+ 25%). Endless energy, great change in sports and in every day of your life.

    • Thanks for that info and I'm sorry I didn't respond earlier, but was at a seminar. I haven't chosen to be in an experimental group because it would be double-blind, placebo controlled and I don't want to risk going thru another experimental protocol and not get the real thing. My liver is in good enough shape for me to wait.

      Having been without detectable viremia for so long, do you feel better? --have more energy? I've had HCV now for 20 years and I sometimes wonder if I've gotten so use to feeling a bit tired that I don't notice it anymore.

      Thanks for your concern.

      COSAman

    • well, we are waiting for Japan; a university professor told me there will be good results, but it will be very difficult to obtain approval.
      In any case I agree with you: huge market for hep b.

    • Hep B is bigger business. One of Ten Asians have HEP B.

    • Great post Sno.
      I have already told you that many people in my research group, treated with ribavirin + Infergen Yamanouchi, cleared virus, but after only four months without therapy, suffered rebound. My doctor said, there were a lot of terrible side effects (two suicide attempts only in the group).
      In any case I already told you I succesfully tested on myself Zadaxin+Ribavirin (virus C completely cleared without side effects and without rebound after 1 year without therapy).
      Many people in the group did the same.
      So I think our Xadaxin is great and we'll have great market within 2006.

    • I went through HCV treatment using S&P's PEG interferon and ribaviron. I can't imagine putting anyone through this horror although the alternative to treatment today is much worse... I was lucky because I had the "easy" 2B genotype (sub species), and after 2 years of 6 months of treatment I am still HCV free. So IMHO there really is CONSIDERABLE OPPOPTUNITY as anything would be better than that. Hair fell out, total depression causing me to become addicted to Xanax, and I really wanted to end it all. Much better today although I feel the treatment washed me out a bit for good.

    • << I think it highly do-able that SCLN could get on board there with 10% of it....or $900 million. >>

      Again, just for fun.

      $900mm times 20 divided by 37mm shares outstanding = $486.49 per share.

      What's all this noise about SARS :o)

 
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