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SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • viganis02 viganis02 Jun 18, 2003 9:52 PM Flag

    TECHNICIUM....

    I am in SGP at the present time and I would like to get in to SCLN. It got my interest to check this stock because of this guy wounded elbow keep on posting pretending he doesn't know anything.

    I would appreciate if you can tell me some information in addition to what I will find myself. You seem to be one of the most knowledgeable and balanced person on this board. I like the six month chart and I wonder if the trend will continue. Some posters are saying "onward to forty". Is this a valid statement? TIA

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    • Depends on your time frame! :~)
      The results of the Japan trial (due out this month) certainly won't get SCLN there. But Japan is the short term key. In 1994 Zadaxin failed a similar mono trial agianst hep.B (differences being US vs. Japan, ~96 vs. 300+ patients, and one other thing--see following). Zadaxin has shown statistically significant immune system enchancement in every trial since then; I actually bought my 1st 100 shares 'way back in 1995, when I read an article on the 1994 trial that suggested that trial had been deeply flawed (fortunately I bought ~50% of my current holdings about a year ago, when SCLN was under 3). If you buy SCLN now, you are gambling that the 1994 trial was mishandled somehow. But the 1st 100 patients in the Japan hep.B trial's e-antigen conversion rates showed a 24% efficacy (the current mono standard in Japan is either 16% or 18%--I keep forgetting which). And the really exciting thing is that it does not seem to be generally known that the Japan trial is not Zadaxin vs. placebo, like in 1994--it is full dose (1.6mg) Zadaxin vs. 0.8mg Zadaxin, and the 24% result is the blend of the two doses. Thus, by extrapolating data from various phase 2 trials , we can guestimate a 35-40% efficacy rate for the standard dose. But even 24% would blow away the competition.

      The good things:
      1) Zadaxin is currently in some phase 2 trials in conjunction with TACE and RFA against certain cancers--who knows when we'll be updated on those. Good results would be a wonderful bonus; but Zadaxin's future is most likely to be focused on...
      2) the hep.C trials in the US. Hopefully recruitment for the two 500 patient arms of the trial will be complete at the end of the month; we'll see. 12 month dosing and 6 month observation + ~4 month data tabulation before we know if a Zadaxin/Pegasys combo is good against non-responders to current therapy. Hep.C is a multi-billion $ market, and even a smidgen of that would really help pad SCLN's bottom line (and share price). But most of us longs forsee Zadaxin being part of the standard treatment eventually (like ribavirin + an interferon is now). If that were to happen, 40 would be cheap! But we'll have to wait a couple of years to find out about that.
      3) SARS. China bought $15mil+ Zadaxin last Q to combat SARS--no data yet to show one way or another if it was efficacious. But that windfall saved SCLN from dilution somewhere down the line: it now has sufficient $ to see its way through the US hep.C trials. And if word comes out (IMO doubtful) that Zadaxin stopped the SARS epidemic in its tracks...
      4) SCV-07--the dark horse of SciClone Pharmaceuticals. Don't get me wrong, SCLN's share price will rise or fall based on Zadaxin in the near future, but SCV-07 could end up being even better (albeit many years down the road).

      The bad things:
      1) If Zadaxin has poor results in Japan, SCLN does a BIOM and drops to 4 (at best). A bad Japan result would make the investing public lose faith in Zadaxin (because of 1994), and unless one of the cancer trials stuck gold, you'd be best off selling your shares and taking the tax loss.
      2) Even if Japan is a success, Japanese bureaucracy is slow and it'd probably be 2006 before we did any meaningful sales there.

      Well, that's all I can think to tell you for now (most of the bashers' bogeymen are just silly). Check out rdvirus and mh00034 posts for scientific points of view; mayo_win_tei and heavygarlic for 'reasonable' voices like mine; berthabluefish for relevant links; and skycloneus and redward are the reeeely smart "once-every-couple-of-weeks" posters. Snogreen is the resident "conspiracy theorist," but his theories have a disturbing propensity to end up being true, and he does more thorough DD than anybody...Tc

      • 2 Replies to TECHNICIUM
      • Thanks so much for the background info. That's a lot of digging if I were to get those historical facts. I shall observe and see what happens. Thanks also for recommending the other posters for useful stuffs.

        I am a retired person from a different field but my wife and I are both invested in pharmas because she retired from AHP w/c is WYE now. Both of us are interested in biotech also.

        Again, thanks for your attention.

      • Technicium
        Bad news: 1�) be sure, we'll have good results from Japan. I've already spoken to Prof. Rasi about them.
        2�) This is the problem: Japan authorities are very slow and complicated: approval within 2004. On the market in 2005 first half.
        3�) Shorts: I own MLNM, ARIA, IMGN and other smaller biotechs. Very often shorts have large short interest in these companies.
        Good news:
        Sno already told us we are always waiting for Liver Cancer upgrade: hope if management will get Delaware, they will upgrade within the end of the year.
        Phase 3 Hep C: Sno already told us Ken Sherman was included in FDA Commitee. Guarantee for Zadaxin respect. Our great results will have their fair value.
        You have got large position at a wonderful average price: within 2006 you'll be very rich.

 
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