Next week could be most interesting. On Monday or Tuesday, we'll learn how many shares the Cavazzas bought. I think it's almost a given that they were sold 1.2 million shares by the holder of the 5 puts. Personally, I think it is unlikely they exercised their 5 calls, though if they did it would be extremely bullish. I was pretty close in my predictions a few weeks ago that we would reach 5 by June expiration. Lngtrm may find fault with my guesses but this month I was quite close even if we didn't quite make it to 5. One could logically advance the argument that we were right where the C boys wanted us to be since it insured that another 1.2 million shares went into their pockets without disturbing share price. However, I will be the first to admit that I have NO IDEA where the price will go this week given the pending Russell exclusion which may or may not have any effect on the price. Think about it--the Cavazzas orchestrated this thing perfectly as the rise in price occurred just after we were excluded from the Russell therefore ensuring that more shares will be put onto the market that the C's can buy if they're so inclined. At the moment, valuation of company is comfortably within the Russell cutoff so there's good reason to believe that next June even more shares will be taken out of the float as the Russell indexers buy back in. Pretty smart timing...
I agree wholeheartedly that the hep C P3(U.S.) is not a slam-dunk. The treatment regimen for non-responders has evolved since the trial was designed and even the triple therapy trial in Europe, if it were being designed today, would be using lamivudine instead of ribavirin.
A failure in the U.S. trial wouldn't shock me, only disappoint me (majorly!). Still, I'm optimistic even in the face of a dearth of data to base that optimism on. The 31-patient pilot study data that we've seen lends some support to Z's efficacy in this cohort, but we've only seen 12-week EVR data, and have to hope that EVR will translate to SVR, improvement of liver histology, etc. We have seen no follow-up data on those 31 patients, but my hunch --only a hunch,now!--- is that data was, in fact, collected and has been closely held by management, for reasons I've discussed before. This is just a gut feeling, but one I'm willing to trust until the data proves me wrong. The European Hep c and melanoma trials provide some fallback in any event so, altogether, like the C's, I think the stock is undervalued here.
I don't mean this as a negative just as a correction. We don't know that Z works for non-responders. There is almost no data. That is what the P3 is supposed to show. We have no cirrosis non-responders and cirrosis non responders. Very hard to treat and they aren't being treated with the most efficacious combos -peg interf, Lam, etc. So though indications are good that Z will work, talking like this is a given and all we have to do is wait for the results to be published is simply not true. This is a fairly high risk P3 on a cohort where there is very little data and almost no data from Z. Melanoma stuff is probabely more straightforward. So all I'm saying is that this P3 was designed to get data on an indication where no substantial data has existed previuosly and the cohorts are tough, particularly as these idiots are going to blend for the endpoints.
It was just a very long odds bet for an hour of action with an amount of money that wasn't meaningful. In retrospect and even at the time a very stupid bet. I made the bet because of last hour spikes during past couple of weeks. Not the end of the world, I've made bigger mistakes.
BTW, walk_up , you gave me a good laugh yesterday. I was going back and forth between the option screen and the MB, and when I saw 200 $5 calls purchased so late, I thought: "Who the hell was that?". I go back to the message board and there you are with my answer :-))
I was pulling for you. It would have been slick if it had worked.
Clearly SCLN was a better buy a short time ago in the 2's and 3's, but it's also clear that people that should know better than anyone, the C's, still think it's a good buy at 5. Is it not generally accepted that massive insider buying is a good thing? We do know Z works, what we don't know is whether some or all of the current trials will prove it works well enough to suit the regulatory authorities. If we knew that the price would be very different from where it is now.
I can't advise you on what to do with your dry powder, but my posted sentiment tells you what I'd do if I had some.
what are the odds of a $4.90 stock being the real thing? 18-24 months ago when scln was around $9 everyone here would have been pissed contemplating our current price. Two months ago everyone would have been elated contemplating today's price. We still don't know if it works, we only know massive buying by Cavazza who should know something positive. What's next? Should we use dry powder now? Just looking for opinions.
I wouldn't be too surprised if the C boys exercises their 5 calls. If they want more stock, exercising that call could be cheaper for them than trying to buy another 500k in the market, which could drive the price above $5.
I agree, the C boys will exercise all there options.The only reason they bought them is to exercise there options.These boys want stock at these levels and a lot of it.Why, I keep asking myself why make such a big bet?The only answer I can come up with is the C boys think Z will be effective in C(melanoma).
The price of the stock remaining constant upon the exercising of the call would depend upon if the writer of the call wrote a covered call. A covered call is a call that is written by someone who already had that stock in their possession. If a naked call was written, they would have to purchases it in the market, thus driving the price up. Hopefully :-)