look at BCRX today. they have immune modulating drug. They are ONLY in Phase 1. they have no sales. they hype all kinds of things. Roche just signed a partner deal for the rights. terms were $25 million now. $5 million ongoing. And milestones of up to $530 MILLLION. FOR A PHASE 1 DRUG! And onlytargeted towards transplant rejection/immune things. ONCOLOGY and HEPATITIS is a soon $78 BILLION market! WHAT IS SCLN worth with Hepatitis and Cancer indications? And $30 million in sales NOW. And HBV. And HCV. And several types of cancers? And our net cash market cap is $130 MILLION? If BCRX gets milestones of $530 MILLION? WHAT IS A PHASE 3 HEPATITIS milestone worth? A CANCER DRUG AS WELL? And phase 3 is done. And phase 3 on way for cancer? And a 100% safe and side effect free drug? SCLN could rightly ask for $700 million inmilestones , if BCRX gets $530 million for transplant indications....which does NOT add up to $78 billion annual for Hep and Cancer! ADD IN COMPOSITION OF MATTER PATENT? Thanks a lot mgmt. You suck.
<<NUTLEY, N.J. and BIRMINGHAM, Ala., Nov. 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Roche and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: BCRX) today announced an exclusive license to develop and commercialize BioCryst's phase I compound, BCX-4208, for the prevention of acute rejection in transplantation and for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. BCX-4208 is a transition-state purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP) inhibitor believed to have a potent ability to modulate T- cell activity. T-cells help the body determine when to initiate immune responses and when to accept or reject newly transplanted organs. By specifically modulating T-cell activity, BCX-4208 may offer transplant and autoimmune patients a more efficacious and tolerable treatment option.
"BioCryst's BCX-4208 is a promising addition to our pipeline," said Peter Hug, Roche's Global Head of Pharma Partnering. Under the terms of the agreement, Roche will obtain worldwide rights to BCX-4208 in exchange for a $25 million up-front payment and a $5 million payment as reimbursement for supply of material during the first 24 months of the collaboration. Future event payments could reach $530 million in addition to royalties on product sales of BCX-4208. >>
Drulez, ol msg board buddy(8yrs in Feb 06), the following is from one of your posts in 1998, "look at the facts before you condemn this stock and look at how biotechnology stocks in developmental phases trade before their number 1 drug achieves commercial success".
I know, we have been "looking" for a long time but can't you wait another 16 days or so?
By the way, i don't know how the 10,000 Chinese are doing but i met one American (Carol Spence) at the SCLN 2003 annual meeting that was indeed CURED of Hep C with the help of Zadaxin.
>>> Brian Haig, his son, writes pretty entertaining fiction along the lines of a Nelson DeMille. His main character is a Jag lawyer who has a love/hate relationship with the army, but he keeps it pretty apolitical and the dialogue is wake-up-your-wife-because-you-are-shaking-the-bed-while-trying-to-stifle-your-laughter funny. <<<
In my case it would be " wake-up-your-neighbor's-wife-", but that's beside the point :
Can you recommend a particular title ?
>>> Finally, is anyone going to tackle the question of follow up results on the 10,000 plus patients in China ho received zadaxin treatment????? <<<
Drulez, I really do understand the frustration of the longs here , especially the ones who have been holding SCLN for much longer than I have , but the question above makes no sense to me.
You expect testimonials from cured Chinese patients ? If SCLN trotted out something like that I'd view it as a sign of desperation and sell immediately.
The best testimonial is the increase in year over year China sales in spite of the known availability of locally-produced generics , and the expansion into off-label indications that has occurred there. In addition , there are numerous papers describing Chinese research directed toward producing thymalfasin by recombinant means , fusion proteins combining thymalfasin with other bioactive molecules , etc.
I didn't expect SCLN share price to be this low so close to results , and I have some nearly worthless Dec. calls to prove it. Still , I don't think "Street" knowledge is always correct , and I'll bet on SCLN until the Cavazza's or management starts to bail , or results tell me I've been wrong about this stock.
IMO , longs who sell now are playing into the hands of the smart money on the long and short side , but I could be wrong and if so I'll take a big hit.
Isn't that the way this game works ?
<<You don't remember Al Haig announcing, "I'm in charge?" It was a classic alongside Nixon's, "I'm not a crook.">>
It was reported by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker or somewhere. Haig had lined up is buddies in the military to go along with it so Nixon could stay in power. It was stopped by the Secretary of Defense at the time, (I think it was William Rucklehouse (sp) , not sure) who wouldn't go along with and phoned HIS buddies in the military to stop it. The plan was to encircle Wash D.C. , declare state of emergency, etc.\
there's probably a similar plan being dusted of at this moment of the shrub. I don't think there is anyone upright enough in the government to stop it from happening now. And the media would go along with it.
You are right- I have been here for a long time and I did here the company say the results are good. But has any other credible American professional touted these reslts as good. If the results were that good would the Hep community merely sit back and do nothing to salvage a treatment that was effective but caught up because of clerical errors. Come on now!!! Some one in the US must have seen these results and either been impressed enough to increase awareness of the results or unimpressed enough to sit back and do nothing. The latter seems to be the prevalent position.
Finally, is anyone going to tackle the question of follow up results on the 10,000 plus patients in China ho received zadaxin treatment?????
<<>>the stock price is not controlled by the medical worth of the drug anymore, it is controlled by management to use for their own benefit and not ours.<<
No, I am not absolutely sure.
Isn't Haig the guy who was Nixon's chief of staff after Haldeman had to go to jail and wanted to declare martial law. Or was he Reagon's during Iran/Contra? I get these guys mixed up. Their MO is so similar. Let's see, Bush Sr. was Nixon's CIA guy, who bombed Combodia into the arms of the killing fields right? Or was he the VP of Reagan who oversaw the 500 billion give away to the S and L's.
As far as SCLN is concerned, silence is killing us. Of course, I suppose, management is just being cautious. After all, it is better to be cautious and see the pps drop 75% or more than to say something that might, somehow, be interpreted as hype.
As far as motive, if there is one, well, I just can't think of any at the moment without seeming to be a conspiracy nut. I think I will be cautious.
Actually, I find you very credible in your assertions about the prescribing habits of certain Hepatology department heads as well as your observation that higher doses of Z are used. The biggest argument that seems to get advanced on this board by the shorts is that "Zadaxin doesn't work." There is lots of scientific evidence that it DOES work, and I thought your elaboration on your comments re use in nonresponders who can afford to pay for it would be germane. I certainly don't want you to violate anyone's confidentiality (doctor or patient) so I understand your position. Perhaps the biggest mistake SciClone has made to date was in not launching a trial for a more easily achievable aim (reduction of chemo side effects or vaccine adjuvant indications). If we were already on the US market I'm convinced there would be lots of off-label use. I am also convinced that Zadaxin has significant biologic activity. The worry I have relates still to hep C trial design. I believe we will see a statistically significant reduction in SVR in nonresponders. Exactly how great that effect will be and which group of nonresponders benefits the most remains to be seen. The total valuation of this company relative to other drug development companies remains remarkably low. That's what makes it such a high risk-reward play. Definitely not for the faint of heart, that's why wounded is here--to instill fear, uncertainty and doubt so that his fund can profit. What a way to make a living!
<< Could you elaborate further>>
How would that be helpful? Giving more details may give more credibility to what I've said, but won't necessarily confirm it.
Hepatologists that are heads of their liver clinics and transplant programs oversee the trials at their facilities. They are free to RX Z to patients not in trials if they think that it may be beneficial. And they do. As you know, an RX from a doc here, and some paperwork (not that much) allows a patient to order Z from Panama. Email and FAX. The Z comes fast. Ordered on Monday, it could arrive on Wed. The FDA clears it quickly through customs, obviously.
As for the dosage, I suppose, it is evident from overseeing the trials, that there is evidence that leads them to believe that Z works but that the 1.6 mg is not enough for maximum benefit, and since there are only beneficial side effects (increase of adherence to therapy, for one) then it is obvious that at least 3.2 mg is appropriate for nonresponders.