Almost all posters, long or short, have a negative opinion despite a wide trading range. We had in the past $8 as well as $2, so everybody should be satisfied. I absolutely cannot understand that longs now want to sell at $6-$7. THEY WILL, what a pity. My advice: never buy a small cap again. The return for such long sellers will be near 0% annually with all kinds of stress related diseases. I'm so sorry after all the painful waiting. SCLN is an ALL OR NOTHING speculation. If results are good, SCLN will rise accordingly, NOT only to $8! 400 000 non-responders treated with likely $10 000 Zadaxin (pricing in US may be higher) is a tremendous market for the FIRST approved therapy! Ribavirin is NOT in the game! The mechanism is likely a weak Th1 stimulation, already made by Zadaxin. WCD, let us buy the company, fire SCLN management, sell it to 60 VIP hepatologists! NO reason to sell at all after POSITIVE results for CHC!
there is something to learnfrom the data on teh mexico triple. First it was ALL in hispanics. They are a harder group to treat. The U.S. trial will have far less hispanics per population. So that is a good sign to point towrds higher overall response.
Second. the mexico triple FROM TEH START..use a LOW dose of ribavirin than is standard in U.S. trials. mexico only pays for a low dose ribavirin, so trial had to go that way.
Third? On TOP of anALREDY LOW dose ribavirin.during teh trial...they had to LOWER the ribavirin dose even more. 18% had to have reductions. So you see you may be worrying about the fact that OUR phse 3 has no ribavirin.but teh mexico trial had a FAR LOWER than normal dose as well.
Fourth. The Peg IFn had to be lowered in 24% of patients in mexico trial as well. That lowers overallSCVR as well.
So. Other data showed that in mexico a re-trial of non responders got an overal l9% SVR. BUT look at the mexico data...and FOCUS on the genotype 1 non responder data! That is what the U.S. trial is. On that subset, the addition of Zadaxin got it up to a 23% response.versus a 9% SVR seen elsewhere.That is significant, and bodes well fot out data.
In sum? REMEMBER that the results in mexico were ALL HISPANICS.thus you expect LOWER SVR numbers......and ribavirin may not be as much of an issue anyway.because in Mexico THEY STARTED with a LOW dose.and had to reduce it LOWER as the trial wen on in 18% of patients!
All this bodes well for SCLN imo.
Imo in case of positive results from the hcv usa trials and fda approval $1B value is more than realistic, and that means $20 a share. Current share price is irrelevant.
In case melanoma in europe succeeds as well then hold your hat.
Pitiful. If FDA approval. You're talking sometime around 2008, two more years down the road. Peoples unrelenting unrealistic optimism is just plain stupid and Weda is a prime example. Here we are less than a week away from a supposed announcemnt of the 1st arm of the P3 trials and the stock is getting killed. Nobody is speculating or betting on positive results and probably they are betting that even if the results are positive they will be so equivocal that they won't make a