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SciClone Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • megalops_giganticus megalops_giganticus Mar 10, 2000 10:57 PM Flag

    Im pretty new to this game but,

    I am a novice investor when it comes to
    individual stocks. I make less than $30k/year, so I value
    every penny. I started with 200 shares of INTV in 10/99
    @ $10/share. I researched the company for a couple
    of months before buying in. INTV had sound
    fundamentals and a product that I believed in. I witnessed the
    MMs drive the price of INTV from around $14 to just
    under $10 during their accumulation phase. This is also
    (coincidentally) when I bought. I then got ride the train up to
    $35.5 when I sold and bought into SCLN (2/25 - 600 @
    $11.6875.)

    I've been following SCLN since late January, and
    bought in for the same reasons as INTV (sound
    fundamentals & belief in the product.) I bought in after the
    dip following the 2/23 news story mentioning the $1B
    in potential yearly sales. I've read every one of
    the 8000+ posts on this board, along with many of the
    links posted. The ATTUNEMENTS link on MMs helped to
    clarify what I witnessed with INTV & now SCLN. Thanks for
    posting this mor2.

    I do however, have a question
    regarding the ATTUNEMENTS article. Rule #4 states: ANY
    STOCK THAT TRADES HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS
    THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE. Isn't this what happened last
    week (2/28) when we went from 11.6875 to 16.25 on
    heavy volume? OMNI keeps suggesting that the MMs are
    still accumulating heavily, but that contradicts rule
    #4. I would greatly appreciate any feed back from any
    of the pros here.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • That article was mostly talking about the
      manipulation of BS stocks that trade in Vancouver, Alberta and
      OTCBB. Sciclone is a completely different
      story.

      While I can't prove to you that institutions are still
      accumulating, this fact will be illustrated for all to see in
      the very near future. Quarterly reporting for
      institutional accumulation will occur at the end of March. At
      the end of the last quarter 8% of SCLN stock was held
      by institutions. The number to be reported at the
      end of March will be much higher, unless there is a
      huge price pop between now and then and institutions
      decide to take profits. If this happens, I'm sure you
      accept never knowing the answer to your question in
      exchange for a bank account overflowing with new found
      $$$.

      Who dares, wins!

      • 3 Replies to omniportent
      • I don't doubt that the MMs are still
        accumulating, because this closely resembles what I saw late
        last October (with INTV.) One of the key reasons that
        I finally moved my position over to SCLN is because
        of the high volume & institutional activity (like I
        had seen with INTV.)

        I had assumed that high
        volume = good, but the ATTUNEMENTS article suggested
        otherwise. This is what got me confused. I understand why
        everyone has been hoping for reduced volume the past few
        days - because the volume was mostly generated by
        sellers.

        Are there any other indicators that a novice like
        myself can use to show institutional accumulation
        besides Thompson's I-Watch & obvious shakeouts? I don't
        completely understand how you watch for invisible trading
        walls that you write about, but I'm not using a level2
        quote service either. I only use the free real-time
        quotes that come with my Etrade account.

        I do
        want to thank everyone on this board that is willing
        to help the 'newbies' like myself. I know I only
        have a very small position in SCLN compared to most of
        you, but it is 100% of my individual stock portfolio.
        Until I learn much more, I'm keeping most of my $$$ in
        mutual funds. I am so far very impressed with SCLN, as I
        have made 50% in 2 weeks. I've never had a mutual fund
        do that! I plan on keeping at least half of my
        shares of SCLN for more than a year.

      • Take a look at this
        site:

        http://www.equis.com/java/

        It will default/load DJIA. Give it time to load then
        type in SCLN. Use the second pull-down menu bar on the
        right to get accumulation/distribution and
        click.

        According to this chart serious accumulation peaked the
        last week of Feb. when the price first hit $15.
        Distribution then began.

        Chaikin Oscillator decline
        looks dicey from the same peak--could bottom here and
        turn up.

        Other indicators don't look bad at all
        and were rising into this week and only dipped the
        past two days.

        I don't know what the
        divergences tell us.

        My suspicion is that some people
        got it horribly wrong and it will become more than
        apparent when the IBD buying starts and additional analyst
        coverage begins.

      • no time pressure, they may leave the price going
        down and scare some more private investors out. SCLN
        is one of the best stocks around, but be prepared to
        have some patience. Many investors came in in the
        lower single digits and feel good to take their initial
        investment and some profit out now.

        For us it is the
        possibility to look through the portfolio or mortage the farm
        and shift more to SLCN.

        Institutions have to
        take profits too and this will from time to time slow
        down the upswing in a small market.

        The
        direction is nothing but north, but there will be
        corrections, stay calm everybody.

        Good luck to all
        longs.

    • That article about mm's was very good but was
      wrong in more than one aspect. Most of it was on the
      ball but there are no absolutes out there even with
      the mm's. MM's are caught by surprise on many stocks.
      Not as often as you and me but it does happen all the
      time. There are some things that just cant be
      anticipated. This is especially true now with all the
      daytrading and retail investing. All sorts of events can
      catch mm's by surprise no matter what volume a stock
      shows up or down. fda approval, surgical procedure
      killing a patient, food poisening, earthquakes. Please
      use that article to learn about mm's but take it with
      a grain of salt. 1 last thing there is a world of
      difference with an mm who makes the market in an otc/bb
      stock and one that is on the nyse,amex or nasdeq.

    • Please take "HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS
      THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE" in the case of SCLN to mean
      huge volume at HIGHER PRICES which will be (imo) near
      the hundred dollar range and then be aware that the
      company plan and fundementals may be calling for a split
      and then you have to look for the HIGHER PRICES range
      once again! THIS STOCK IS STILL DIRT CHEAP in my
      opinion and these are the CHEAP PRICES !!!! hope that
      helps and it looks like you are asking the right
      questions and doing your homework, you are on the right
      path!!!

 
SCLN
5.32+0.20(+3.91%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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