As a current Long I don't know where the bottom could be, but given the dividend cut to .03 (at the bottom of the rumored range) and given the outlook for commercial/industrial property this next year being horrific...I can't take any solice in the discount to NAV being 31% ($3.24/4.68). I think the only thing holding up this stock was the dividend and I shudder to think where we will be the next few weeks (under $2!!!!????) since the NAV could easily drop much more.
I spent the morning in a conversation with a big E.coast and European shopping center and commercial office developer and his advice now is "get out, take your losses and go on...recovery is a minimum of 18 months away, and many will not make it to that". They are basically closing up shop for 6 months and playing wait and see (and they are in good shape). Even their projects in places that had not been overbuilt are being pulled back, since the feeling is they will be the last to be funded from the demand side. It was a VERY depressing conversation.
Bottom line for me...I will stick with the AWP I have because I don't need to sell out (thank god) but I am not adding on any weakness (something I have NEVER said before....I almost always add on weakness)....at this point it is all risk and no reward...there are better opportunities out there without this risk.
I have been following stocks and CEFs that have recently cut thier divis, and there has been a recent trend up for them.
While too soon to say, there seems to be some new year bottom feeding going on, and AWP seems to be a benefitiary of late. While the near term still looks bleak, people are still betting on the long term growth of this sector.
Tempted to sell if it goes to $4, however, if it busts through $4, who's to say we couldn't have a 50% gain (from November lows) this spring?
Too-much upside for this baby. I guess we will see where we are after trading starts post conference call.
Thomas J. Herzfeld just recommended this POS on Nightly Business Report. It'll probably get a pop on Monday for a few days. His only other recommendation was ESD. No matter. I wouldn't touch either one of them unless for a VERY short term trade.
The only solace could be that their exposure to real estate is global and, perhaps, the impact on non-US commercial properties will be less severe than what is now being predicted for the US. I'm with you, not adding but holding. Maybe I'll live long enough to see a recovery.
Frankly, I think it was good they cut the dividend as much as they did. The previous dividend certainly seemed unsustainable under current conditions. While there will be some near term weakness, I do not think we will see $2.
The commercial real estate market is certainly going to be tested but my hope is 5-6X returns in 5+ years. Hopefully that will be possible. I have been adding on big drops.
The after hours was 2.80. If it is under 3.00 at open tomorrow, I'm jumping in. In Southern California, the commercial market is heading south every day. But I too am looking for something to park my money in long term, so if I buy, I promise to not make my self look again at the price until I get my 2009 year end statement. One of AWPs holdings was a General Properties, or similar, at one time, if not now, and they are going bankrupt. But for every one that AWP holds going under, several more won't. Hey, a 10% divi per year will help ease the pain. Besides, they built a ton of homes here, but didn't build the commercial to go with them (same thing happened in '91-'92), and when financing is cheap again, there are a ton of malls going to be built in these huge housing tracts where the nearest store is 5-miles away now. Seen it before, and will see it again. Just like the monopoly game, property (and utilities) has been the long term money-maker and always will.