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Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. Message Board

  • cben15606 cben15606 Sep 13, 2010 4:50 PM Flag

    Canceled orders?

    Sounds fishy to me. Sorry, I don't read Chinese and the google translation was of little use.

    What I did read were the websites for both ASE and SPIL. No mention of this drastic cut anywhere. And FWIW, I talked to KLIC's IR this afternoon and he stated this would be material and that he had heard nothing on this issue.

    Not saying it absolutely isn't true but these chinese articles posted on the board today are next to useless and I have seen a lot sillier things on message boards to move the share price. Furthermore, going back to their last CC 6 weeks ago, KLIC stated their orderbook was full into December-that was in July, and that deliveries of backlog were constrained by factory capacity and not by orders. Meaning that even with cancellations, there would be a high probability of moving these bonders to other customers.

    Finally, in the spirit of the very good article posted by mfq353 today, ASE in their last quarter pointed out that they are already recognizing significant positive effects on their margins due to adoption of Copper bonders. So irrespective of anything that may or may not be occurring with ASE/SPIL at the moment, Copper bonders will continue to increase penetration in the bonder market currently dominated by Gold bonders. And KLIC is the by far the most domiinant manufacturer of these Copper bonders.

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    • Order cancellation is the nature of the Semiconductor business. Orders can be cancelled in a heart beat hence the volatility of the shares. As we witnessed the lowering of 4Q guidance from INTC, CREE, NSM, NVDA, TSM, UCM ASX, SPIL and many others, it would not struck me as a huge surprise if it happens to KLIC since the share already dropped, without any negative news, in anticipation of this.

      On the other hand, if the push outs and cancellations proven untrue and KLIC is able to maintain the current pace of revenue, the shares should go ballistic to the upside like it did in March last year, which was like 400% in a month and half.

      Like I said, let's see what happens. If the Taiwan articles have any truth to it, it will be material and will be announced shortly. Perhaps even tonight when Taiwan market opens.

      • 1 Reply to maven88888
      • Ok I got my Chinese speaking friend to translate it. She says the article states that they have halted all capex spending for Q4 due to weaker demand. However, both articles cite other newspapers as sources and do not cite any specific person within the corporations as a source...

        It smells fishy to me, but ready to trade either way if this story proves to be true.

    • I translated the articles and it sounded very bad. Sounds like all of Klics orders went away. The stock price confirms.

      I did read today though that analyst put out personal computers stablized in late aug and early sept. So shouldn't be a train wreck.

      • 2 Replies to drugsman12
      • "I translated the articles and it sounded very bad. Sounds like all of Klics orders went away."

        OK I translated it as well and while it may not sound good, there was no way any non-Chinese speaking individual could discern what exactly it meant to KLIC. I say this because it could simply be rehashing old news that KLIC themselves put out at the last CC that SPIL/ASX were in fact slowing down orders but were picking up copious orders elsewhere.

        Now if SPIL/ASX are in fact slashing orders, then it is potentially good news in the long run to smooth things out as KLIC transitions overseas. SPIL/ASX are definitely transitioning to Copper bonders and will need a lot of them. Look at this HUGE plant ASX is building to complete in late 2011 and will need a lot of copper bonders for:

        http://www.aseglobal.com/content/pdf/News-05262010.pdf

        "The 11-story Plant K12, with a floor area of 70,200 square meters, is designated to provide expansion for ASE’s flipchip assembly and copper wirebond leadframe/substrate assembly lines. When completed in November of 2011, ASE expects to hire 6,000 more employees."

      • What exactly do you mean the stock price confirms? KLIC, ASIL, etc are all up today.

 
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