For what they worth ! Lam, klac,nvls and asml all had pretty much the same reports and guidance. Lam was first over a week ago and went down 7 to 8% the next day. Nvls had the worse report and was up over 10% a week later after the Greek announcement. Pretty obvious fundamentals mean nothing right now, if they ever do, as lrcx has gone back up 15% in the short term. I've read several articles over the weekend about how the lull in the semis is over and its buy time. Has anything changed ? Is demand going to be different next year ? Funny how things can change in a week. More like the hype and BS has changed, but I'll take it. Stocks can go up for no reason, but it usually takes something significant for them to go down. We all know they over shoot both ways, but its hard for me to go long here with the gov and economy as screwed up as it is. Maybe we can get this in the 11's before reality sets in
Just looked a lot of 5 day charts and 90% of them look alike, except klic of course, and most are just closing the gaps created last Thurs and Fri, as the big $$$ unloaded their inventory to the funds that are clueless and are always late to the party. Now where do we go ? Not a good sign when the first day of the month acts like this
The problem is the outlook was flat yet they have all ramped up. I decided to short klac of course, the only one that didn't go down today. Figures ! Klic has taken another 2 day beating, can't handle prosperity. Looking at 5 day chart , it looks like its just filling all the gaps, if it can hold here
nothing out of the ordinary with KLIC's pullback so far.
I am looking at picking up more of the Jan 10 calls between .65-.85 if we manage to pull back to low $9's. Otherwise I will just sit on my hands until we are over $11.00 and then start overwriting my 10's with 12's-15's as the price moves higher into year end.
FWIC in a normal year the time to make money in KLIC is between now and mid/end of January. In general it can be said for most of tech that this is the time to buy. Just seems that historically analysts/investors are pessimistic through the summer, then turn optimistic in the late fall after there is turmoil in Aug/Sept/Oct.
As we all know it's not the earnings they report but the outlook in this industry that drives prices, which means things can look bleak today and the stocks will start to rise in anticipation.