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Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. Message Board

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  • STOCKDOX STOCKDOX Mar 20, 1999 4:04 PM Flag

    KLIC TER AMAT technicals and other mumbo

    Apology accepted. The two instructive points you
    made, if I can paraphrase are:

    1. KLIC is a
    great long term company based on a long historical
    perspective. You are absolutely correct. If you held the stock
    for 5 years you would have made money. I see no
    reason why that will not continue. I love the company it
    is well managed and has a dominant market position.
    However, the cycles of these stocks are very deep and
    painful. I cannot stand that kind of pain and would rather
    escape that downcycle. My best guess is that we are in a
    temporary downcycle driven by weak PC sales among other
    things. I have no stomach to ride the stock down. To me
    it doesn't make sense to. If I am wrong and the
    stock starts an upside break out I can always jump back
    on. It wouldn't be the first time I had to run after
    a train after it started leaving the station. To
    me, buying and holding these stocks is a hell of a
    way to make money but it can be done.

    2.Keep
    the faith issue. Concur. I covered this in a previous
    post. Lets move on.

    Finally I would like to add.
    If I sound excessively bearish on KLIC I may be
    guilty as charged. I am overall a stock market bear at
    this point. I see many technical devergences that I
    don't like. I see a major selloff coming. Therefore
    there is very little that I wish to own. Any stocks
    that shows any weakness at all are sold. I have sold
    just about all my tech stocks recently including a
    couple of my all time favorites. INTEL and NOKIA. The
    only tech stock that I am still significantly long is
    SUNW. The chart of SUNW is very strong so I still hold
    it although I did part with half my stake. I am not
    sure how long I will have it. I have some financial
    stocks, which I am slowly unloading, some oil stocks
    which I am slowly accumulating and some REITS which I
    am heavily buying. There probably isn't a way to
    mask my bearish bias.

    Anyway I wish you no
    misforture.

    Good luck

    DOX

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    • I must immediatly clarify the 'instructiveness'
      of my post - because, and don't take this
      personally, you interpreted it wrong.

      You say:
      "However, the cycles of these stocks are very deep and
      painful. I cannot stand that kind of pain and would rather
      escape that downcycle. My best guess is that we are in a
      temporary downcycle driven by weak PC sales among other
      things. I have no stomach to ride the stock
      down."

      The entire point of my post - and the tone set by
      Aurileano's original 'Deja Vu' post - was precisely the
      mirror image of what you are saying. To wit, we are now
      in a strong upcycle, with short and violent
      corrective pauses. During these pauses you will read all
      sorts of justifications (weak PC sales) that the cycle
      is already over....or is in for a temporary, but
      fairly sustained, setback. The entire objective - the
      'instructiveness' - of my posting the 5 year chart was show how
      easily people can be fooled into believing the death of
      a cycle. You may call this a 'temporary downcycle'
      and be scared into selling all your tech stocks. I
      claim this is a brief, gut wrenching hiccup during the
      early phase of the up cycle. If history remains our
      guide, and it has been incredibly reliable so far, this
      phase will likely be over in a week or so.

      I
      wouldn't even consider selling one share of Klic at this
      stage and would, in fact, seriously consider adding
      some INTC, NVLS, and PRIA. They're steals at the
      moment as well.

      We'll agree to disagree as to the
      appropriate preception. Time will tell.

 
KLIC
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