Apology accepted. The two instructive points you made, if I can paraphrase are:
1. KLIC is a great long term company based on a long historical perspective. You are absolutely correct. If you held the stock for 5 years you would have made money. I see no reason why that will not continue. I love the company it is well managed and has a dominant market position. However, the cycles of these stocks are very deep and painful. I cannot stand that kind of pain and would rather escape that downcycle. My best guess is that we are in a temporary downcycle driven by weak PC sales among other things. I have no stomach to ride the stock down. To me it doesn't make sense to. If I am wrong and the stock starts an upside break out I can always jump back on. It wouldn't be the first time I had to run after a train after it started leaving the station. To me, buying and holding these stocks is a hell of a way to make money but it can be done.
2.Keep the faith issue. Concur. I covered this in a previous post. Lets move on.
Finally I would like to add. If I sound excessively bearish on KLIC I may be guilty as charged. I am overall a stock market bear at this point. I see many technical devergences that I don't like. I see a major selloff coming. Therefore there is very little that I wish to own. Any stocks that shows any weakness at all are sold. I have sold just about all my tech stocks recently including a couple of my all time favorites. INTEL and NOKIA. The only tech stock that I am still significantly long is SUNW. The chart of SUNW is very strong so I still hold it although I did part with half my stake. I am not sure how long I will have it. I have some financial stocks, which I am slowly unloading, some oil stocks which I am slowly accumulating and some REITS which I am heavily buying. There probably isn't a way to mask my bearish bias.
I must immediatly clarify the 'instructiveness' of my post - because, and don't take this personally, you interpreted it wrong.
You say: "However, the cycles of these stocks are very deep and painful. I cannot stand that kind of pain and would rather escape that downcycle. My best guess is that we are in a temporary downcycle driven by weak PC sales among other things. I have no stomach to ride the stock down."
The entire point of my post - and the tone set by Aurileano's original 'Deja Vu' post - was precisely the mirror image of what you are saying. To wit, we are now in a strong upcycle, with short and violent corrective pauses. During these pauses you will read all sorts of justifications (weak PC sales) that the cycle is already over....or is in for a temporary, but fairly sustained, setback. The entire objective - the 'instructiveness' - of my posting the 5 year chart was show how easily people can be fooled into believing the death of a cycle. You may call this a 'temporary downcycle' and be scared into selling all your tech stocks. I claim this is a brief, gut wrenching hiccup during the early phase of the up cycle. If history remains our guide, and it has been incredibly reliable so far, this phase will likely be over in a week or so.
I wouldn't even consider selling one share of Klic at this stage and would, in fact, seriously consider adding some INTC, NVLS, and PRIA. They're steals at the moment as well.
We'll agree to disagree as to the appropriate preception. Time will tell.