2010 full year EPS will be calculated using 21,523,430 O/S and with net income guidance between $36 to $39 million for this year, that's an EPS range of $1.67 to $1.81
Bottom line ? This is a sexy story (Macau) that will continue to gain traction over the days, weeks and months to come. Huge staying power displayed yesterday and thus I'm looking for a PPS next week to range between $12.50 to $15.00 when all is said and done.
Well one thing that I think AERL won't suffer from is the typically low valuations seen by most of the China small-caps we all follow. BORN was a semi-sexy story and its valuation blossomed overnight until short-seller blog attacks brought it back down to earth. Macau is an extremely sexy story that's gaining traction daily, thus I think AERL can look forward to a decent P/E going forward, probably ending up at a multiple of at least 15 and I certainly don't think the stock will have to endure any short-seller blog attacks since gaming audits are strenuous.
Right now and using the mid-point of 2010 net income guidance or EPS of $1.74, we're currently trading with a P/E of 5.85 based upon yesterday's close of $10.19 and thus I obviously think the stock's going much much higher. Keep in mind, just three trading days ago, AERL was virtually known by no one, but I guarantee you that'll change in a heartbeat.
Technicians will claim that the stock's run too far too fast and those will be the folks that get left behind. I'd give some credibility to the thoughts of technicians if AERL didn't have such a low P/E and had the story already unfolded, but AERL is a new discovery to many and did anyone see the staying power yesterday ? Impressive for sure.
Closing price next Friday ? I'll say between $12.50 and $15.00
Lots of people missed out on the SCOK 16-day run from $3.50 to $53.00 and many missed out on the BORN run, but AERL's story blows away what any of those two companies will ever have.
So to answer your question as to where the stock trades in the next 12 months, I'm still waiting for earn-out clarification from management, but based upon what I've researched so far, I'll say $30.00 a year from now.