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Asia Entertainment & Resources Message Board

  • drjackcar drjackcar Feb 10, 2011 1:44 PM Flag

    gallery........you're way, way off

    Shamrock's figures are much closer to the truth.

    To the best of my recollection the current OS count that the company is using to figure 2010 (about 22M) already includes 4M shares that will be given to the original owners as part of the SPAC agreement. These shares were withheld as insurance until the former operating numbers reported to the acquirers were confirmed.

    So the dilution is primarily coming from the incentive shares (a total of 18.7M) to be distributed over 2010, 11, 12. If they are distributed in equal portions then add about 6.3M to the current count giving us........call it 29M.

    Based on my NI calculation for 2011 of roughly $61M it puts 2011 EPS @ $2.10, which in turn makes the current forward p/e about 5. Of course in 2012 the next allotment of shares will be distributed, but I think it is safe to assume that by then another promoter company or room will have been acquired so that the new net income figure will more than compensate for the additional shares, giving the company another year of EPS growth.

    Remember too they are generating a significant amount of cash flow and currently have no debt.

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