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Asia Entertainment & Resources Message Board

  • drjackcar drjackcar Apr 5, 2011 7:42 PM Flag

    real dilemma

    Obviously the stock is compelely broken. But it doesn't feel like the right thing to do to sell a stock I still believe in, even if no one else does.
    I think the earnings are real, that they will get a room in the new Galaxy, that they will get coverage. Yet none of that matters.

    Frankly, I don't know what to do.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • It's simple I think.
      The average PE of SPAC and RTO chinese stocks is very low right now and AERL is just following.
      Shorters comments about fraud etc is nonsense, as the company released AUDITED results for 2010, signed by reliable auditors.
      I own some LZEN (IPO microcap) which has the same auditors with AERL (another SPAC, CHOP also) and I searched about them:

      UHY Vocation is rather unknown with small presentence in US (ranked in top-100), but it is a big firm of Hong Kong with giant domestic companies as clients:

      http://www.uhy-hk.com/ourclient.html

      There are 90 persons in the firm:

      http://www.uhy-hk.com/

      UHY Vocation is a member of UHY International.

      IMO for a long term investor there is no problem to hold AERL.

      • 1 Reply to lb_alberti
      • I think anyone that has spent any time doing DD on AERL knows fraud is not an issue. Also, they aren't a Chinese company.

        But because they came public by way of a SPAC and therefore have no inherent institutional sponsorship the valuation is kind of crazy.

        I have urged management to issue a "letter to shareholders" to clarify some of the misconceptions that may exist but I can understand they don't want to appear so eager to defend the stock they come off looking like hacks. I guess we just have to trust that evetually the market will recognize AERL for what it is. Until then it's in the penalty box.

    • Don't blame you for thinking they were retail callers but I'm told there was virtually no retail participation on the call. Preisslor referred to most of those guys by their first name so he was familiar with them.

      I don't blame you for thinking they have shot their wad on catalysts. This isn't going to turn around over night. But the value is there.

    • They ususally say where they are from when it is from a real firm. It was certainly nice to see that they completely answered all questions. But with guidance complete and the rolling chip counts getting old I just don't know what pushes this up short term, while I certainly know all the #$%$ can push it down.

    • All the questions were from fund guys.

    • I've been in this since the warrants and holding patiently. Listened again to the CC where management took no questions from any funds just individuals and said that they are just going to stay the course and the share price will work it's way out. I think it might in the end, but for now, with no real upside surprises expected (even the decision to move on the new room is factored in) I'm reluctantly out for now since I get the feeling I was the only one in this. Good luck all longs.

    • Probably just need to ride it out, but the current float is too tight.

      Since the stock only trades 100-200k shares a day, It would not surprise me to see either a secondary offering of the insider/incentive shares OR the shares being monetized thru a private placement or both. Neither would benefit the company financially, but the overhang issue would be removed and the float increased.

      Est for 2011:

      45 mil shs O/S
      $1.50 EPS
      10 PE

      Don't think you'll see any brokerage sponsorship until a secondary is announced.

      • 1 Reply to gallery_pup
      • Not to nitpick because I know those shares are out there but the count for 2011 according to the CC will be slightly less than 39M with the weighted average they figure EPS against down around 37.5.

        But I hear ya on the 45M.

        My guess as to how much the new Galaxy room will add to NI is around $8M.

        So take the mid range of guidance and add $8M to that and you get $73M for the year so technically EPS will come in around $1.90-1.95.

        But what could matter less?

 
AERL
3.96+0.06(+1.54%)Oct 1 4:00 PMEDT

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