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  • drjackcar drjackcar Jul 6, 2011 4:20 PM Flag

    so about $0.95 for the first half of 2011

    They didn't blame it on the win rate this time so maybe closing the MGM hurt more than I thought. That and Macau's gaming rev was down sequentially.

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    • I agree with you. The tables went up - alot. There are 3 constraints in the business - Capital, Tables, and gamblers.

      Now that they have another room that is basically the same size as the Galaxy Star - which produced most of the RCT in 2010 - effectively doubling the capacity - the limiting constraint now is likely their ability to feed gamblers to those tables. This will happen, but I do not think it would be reasonable to expect that it would occur immediately.

      Things are going well here - and have the "room" to continue. We will see.

    • There was no reason to think the May RCT (adjusted number) would continue as the Macau figures for 6 mo's clearly indicated a spike in May.

      $1.5B RCT is a fair number to use as an est going forward and higher than mgt's original $1.3B est for 2011

      $18B RCT for 2011 can still yield $72M in net income of which 15% will be paid out in dividends.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-03/macau-s-june -casino-gross-revenue-summary-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo

    • There was no reason to think the May RCT (adjusted number) would continue as the Macau figures for 6 mo's clearly indicated a spike in May.

      $1.5B RCT is a fair number to use as an est going forward and higher than mgt's original $1.3B est for 2011

      $18B RCT for 2011 can still yield $72M in net income of which 15% will be paid out in dividends.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-03/macau-s-june-casino-gross-revenue-summary-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo

    • Based on today's RCT number I'm reducing my projected RCT run rate down to $1.7B from $2.2B for the rest of 2011. That works out to be about $73M in net income and just over $2 in EPS based on 35.3M shares.

      So my guess is the guidance raise, which I figure will come at the Q2 release, will go to $65-70M. Not really much of a bump. Certainly not the kind of increase that will excite retail.

      • 2 Replies to drjackcar
      • You feel around $2 per share isn't enought to excite retail. What PE Dr. do you think we should put on those earnings. My opinion a 7 to 8 PE would be reasonable. Oh let's not forget these retail investors also will start getting a decent dividend. Mgmt has an incentive to see the stock get to $20 plus so they can cash in their loan option shares. Also they have the ability to buy back up to 2 million shares as they deem necessary.
        I feel pretty good about my relatively large position and will add to it as long as price is below $10.

      • The question we need an answer for is how the RCT ended up being only 1.5 when it would have been 2.039 in May if the win rate was where it should be on average.

        I mean if you look at what happened during the month you had the room at the MGM shuting down on the 15th but you had a whole month of revenue from the Galaxy as opposed to half a month in May. So compared to May that is a wash. DrJ is right, we need to know the win rate % to really drill down on the numbers. It would also be helpful to know whether the cage capital at the MGM was available to the other rooms after the closing right away or not.

    • Up 117% year-over-year seems good to me.

    • mmbronkar@bellsouth.net mmbronkar Jul 6, 2011 4:21 PM Flag

      But we are up in after hours trading, hopefully this "rolls" into tomorrow.

 
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