I'm here (as I have been for some time now) trying to clear up the lies and distortions by a popular poster (DrJack).
With the endless hours he spends pumping this stock, he might as well just get a job on their PR team.
So the big question everyone seems to have is, how will a dual listing effect AERL's stock price here in the US?
Answer, it really doesn't do anything!
DrJack has posted all sorts of impressive calculations for people to cheer, but just like all his other calculations, they just don't matter.
Ask yourself this.... AERL is a very small company that almost no one in the United states has direct access to. Why would they have not just gone public in Hong Kong to begin with, if conditions would be so much better?
DRjack will also create cases for why AERL should have a p/e much higher then where it is. David Bain tells you even more outlandish price targets.
There are no perfect comps for AERL in the Hong Kong market, Amax 0959 and Neptune 0070.HK are not perfect comps, AMAX has fallen from grace and nearly been wipped out by the chinese vip slowdown. Neptune actually is a very compelling comp, more so then even I realized. They have 51 Tables in 3 large casinos!
So Neptune is larger then AERL and gets invited to rooms on their own merit ( unlike AERL) which buys existing junkets to enter new rooms.
So where am I going with all this? Neptune and Amax's P/E ratio is virtually identical to AERL's. between 1 and 3p/e.
For those of you who are intelligent, ask yourself this.... Why if AERL needs money to fuel growth and use for cage capital do they A. Pay a massive dividend? B. Blow so much cash on Buybacks as well. C. Plan to list shares on another market at rock bottom prices
The answer is simple, Management and executives are cashing out! They own Millions of these shares, so that dividend allows them to extract the company funds, even though they need money to grow. AERL has always just been a holding company of sorts, set up to buy junkets, so capital is what they need!
Neptune bought a stake in junket promoter Hoi Long Sociedade Unipessoal Lda in September.
The reason you buy a junket promoter is to get their gamblers. Otherwise your just spreading your existing gamblers to the new tables and not making any more money. I thought you knew everything about Macau VIP, how come you didn't know that?
Why does management need a second listing to unload their stock? They control the board, they could cook up anything with just the Nasdaq listing.
I do agree with you that they will be listed by introduction rather than an IPO. The HK market got burned by a listing that didn't have enough shares for the demand and the PPS jumped and the investors complained. Therefore the HK listing will be a close match the AERL. However new news will impact the PPS higher and stronger and hopefully become stable instead of retracing all the time.
With 2012 as a wash year in Q3 and Q4 with assumed no credit, the second half of 2013 should be big. Those in the know will run up the PPS as soon as they see credit being extended,