"Meanwhile, investment analysts at Jefferies Group said in a note to investors that the signs coming from the mainland economy are still far from hinting a VIP gaming rebound in Macau.
The firm believes Macau’s gross gaming revenue will grow by 8 percent this year, which would be slower than the 13.5 percent recorded last year, our sister publication Business Daily reports."
Estimates for overall Macau revenue growth range pretty widely as do predictions for VIP growth. Janney's analyst sees zero growth for VIP in 2013, Sterne Agee's sees something like 12% growth based on the historical GDP/VIP correlation, both cover AERL.
The point of all of this is as far as I know nobody, not any analysts anyway, attributes their VIP calls to anything the government has done or is doing regarding a policy change that would effect VIP. They base what they're saying on economic conditions.
As being pointed out many times by many posters, the decrease in RCT is due to self-restrained tight control of credit line as a result of negative Chinese macroeconomic environment. I believe it's a wise move from AERL side. The GGR number will start to trickle in this evening after people return to work from their CNY holiday. From the preliminary data, it's a good showing so far. Hopefully strong channel check results will carry us over $4.50 at end of the week. GLTA.