Are there any other stocks you like? I hold a gigantic position in this company and eventually need to venture out and diversify once this is in the $11 or $12 range again. I kept pouring more and more money in to this when it took a nosedive to lower my dollar cost average, I knew the drop was bullshit and way to extreme.
Are there any other beaten up companies that are bound to make a comeback that you can think of?
p.s. check out ticker symbol "FMD", let me know your thoughts... Thanks, Reeve
Hi Reeve, FMD is another one of those beaten down plays that attract my interest, it did have a decent bounce back on friday but still way off this years highs. I don't think we will see many 52 week highs in any of the financials so the job is to pick the oversold and get in and out on the ranges and anticipated announcements. (I will look at it a bit closer and get back to you)
One I am looking at very closelty is MBI. Got hammered on a disclosure that guys at Merril and Morgan were saying was not disclosed properly. Rating agencies also came out and threatened to drop it to AA+ if they don't come up with another billion of liquidity in the next 6 weeks.
Warburg Pincus recently poured another half a billion at $30 and a half billion worth of options at $40. This is in addition to their 2 million shares already held.
So why am I still reluctant at $20?. I shouldn't be, its nice to get with a 50% cushion from guys like Warburg.
I am pretty sure the better bet on this one is the in the money options. Feb 20's are $4.40 on the ask. I truly believe that they will have announced another billion by then and we should see a pop back to 30 which will give you a double from here.
Tempted to buy the January 20's at 3.20 but we only have 3 weeks till they expire.
On the agenda for some bump ups on this one:
A conference call annoucement Walt Warburgs letter to Investors. Successful raising of the billion
If it drops in the next week so be it, don't worry. until the annoucements are completed and Tax Loss season is behind us we could see more volatility in this play. You are banking on them raising the dough and providing some guidance that goes against the gloom and doom that is out there right now. If we get to the third week in January with no movemnet or down from here then consider rolling your options forward a month or two.
All of couse IMO, the shorts on this play are BIG players and can move the price with bogus commentary. It is trading near the 10 year low, nuff said.
Dumpty I was looking at GCA late Oct. in the 9 range per morningstar recommendation but did not buy because I was beaten up by Etfc. You gave a heads up on Dec7 on the Etfc board. I wanted to thank you, I was able to get in.
I feel bad for all the longs that got caught in this temp. collapse, but I do beleive this will rebound nicely.